The threat of civil unrest looms over conflict-stricken Lebanon as a deepening displacement crisis fuels rising tensions between host communities and predominantly Shia refugees, many of whom come from Hezbollah's support base.
“This is a volatile environment and it could lead to serious internal problems,” former MP and political activist Fares Soueid told This is Beirut.
On Tuesday, Lebanese authorities announced they would boost security measures nationwide, as fears mount among Christian, Sunni, and Druze-populated areas that Hezbollah operatives could be among the displaced Shia, raising the risk of Israeli targeted assassinations.
The majority of the more than one million displaced Lebanese live in precarious conditions without meaningful assistance, Soueid said, often in communities where sectarian tensions run high. The growing humanitarian strain is a potential source of instability, the former MP added.
Tensions have surfaced throughout the country, with recent reports that Hezbollah supporters have been driving through predominantly Sunni neighborhoods of Beirut, chanting sectarian slogans in what many describe as provocative displays.
Residents in these neighborhoods have called on security forces to intervene, accusing the groups of acting on instructions from Hezbollah, according to Saudi-owned Al-Hadath television. Sources cited by the channel said the mobilized youths carried portraits of former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah has directed increasingly bellicose rhetoric against the Lebanese government after it prohibited the group’s military activities. In the past week, Hezbollah officials Mahmoud Qomati and Wafic Safa have issued veiled threats against the cabinet and invoked the use of force. On March 25, Hezbollah angrily denounced the Lebanese Foreign Ministry’s directive to expel Iran’s envoy to Beirut, calling it a “national and strategic sin.”
Hezbollah turning its weapons on Lebanon?
Whether Hezbollah might turn its weapons inward against Lebanon, as it did during the May 2008 clashes in Lebanon, remains a subject of intense speculation. While the risk of civil strife appears to be rising, today’s circumstances differ markedly from those of 2008.
In 2008, Hezbollah mobilized after the Lebanese government moved against its communications network, seizing parts of Beirut and forcing the cabinet to back down. Today, while Hezbollah still possesses a significant arsenal, ongoing losses in personnel and infrastructure have weakened its operational capabilities.
Asked if Hezbollah, whose members were convicted of the February 2005 assassination of premier Rafik Hariri, would revert to killing opponents, Soueid acknowledged that while the risk of political assassinations persists, their strategic value is questioned.
“Assassinations are meant to shift political balances, but killing Lebanese figures today would only deepen internal divisions without affecting the broader regional equation,” he said.
Lebanese daily Nidaa al-Watan reported that Iran and its network of proxies, including Hezbollah, see themselves as facing an existential threat. This has fueled concerns Hezbollah might revert to increasingly violent tactics, including assassinations, bombings, and suicide attacks, particularly as its rhetoric in Lebanon hardens.
Lebanese Forces spokesperson Charles Jabbour said Hezbollah has openly warned that once the war with Israel ends, the militia expects the government to reverse its decisions on the group’s disarmament and legal status.
“Hezbollah has been explicit in its threats, saying it will use all means to turn the situation around,” Jabbour told This is Beirut.
Bluster or Threat?
Hezbollah’s recent bellicose messaging against the Lebanese government is aimed more at projecting strength than reflecting reality, according to Soueid. “Hezbollah threatened the government—and through it, all Lebanese—to send one message: don’t think we have lost,” Soueid told This is Beirut.
“They are trying to show they can still topple the government or destabilize the country. But this rhetoric is meant to make up for what they have lost.”
He argued that a repeat of the May 2008 events is unlikely, citing significant geopolitical changes. “In 2008, [Syrian President] Bashar al-Assad was firmly in power and the border with Syria was largely porous,” he said.
“Today, the border is tightly controlled and Ahmad al-Sharaa now holds power in Damascus. The situation is completely different.”
Soueid also cast doubt on the credibility of Hezbollah’s threats, saying that its continued participation in government undermines claims of imminent escalation. “If they truly intended to bring down the government, their ministers would have withdrawn,” he argued.
“Dogs that bark don’t bite,” Soueid said, implying that the group’s warnings are unlikely to translate into decisive action.
However, the Iran-backed group might be postponing any domestic escalation until the end of the war with Israel, as it is not in a position to fight on two fronts simultaneously.
In this context, Jabbour urged the government to act decisively by sacking Hezbollah-affiliated ministers from the cabinet and taking measures to enforce its decisions against the group.
Political analyst Karim Moufti said that while Hezbollah’s domestic influence has diminished, the fear of the group continues to prevent any serious action against it.
“Given that the group has little left to lose as it struggles to survive, it is likely to resort to coercion and violence should it find the resources and momentum to do so,” Moufti told This is Beirut.
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