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3. Can Joseph Aoun Be Legally Elected on January 9?

While General Joseph Aoun appears to be in pole position, his mandate as Commander-in-Chief of the Army – a first-category position – constitutionally prevents him from running for the presidency.  

According to Article 49 of the Constitution, “judges and first-category public officials, or their equivalents in all public administrations, public institutions and any other legal entity governed by public law, cannot be elected during the exercise of their functions or within two years following the date of their resignation, cessation of their duties or retirement.” General Joseph Aoun is still in office, his mandate having been renewed for the second time on November 28.

Must the Constitution be amended for him to be elected? Does Parliament have the authority to do so?

Parliament: The Sole Legislative Authority

Constitutional amendments depend on the laws and practices of each country. These modifications can range from simple to complex, depending on constitutional systems.

In the United Kingdom, which lacks a written Constitution and instead relies on constitutional principles developed over centuries, Parliament – comprising the House of Commons and the House of Lords – is sovereign and can legislate as it wishes. In the United States, amending the Constitution is a complex process: an amendment must be proposed by Congress (both houses, with two-thirds of the votes in each chamber) or by two-thirds of state legislatures calling for a convention. It must then be ratified by three-quarters of the states. In France, Article 89 of the Constitution outlines three steps: drafting the amendment, its identical approval by the National Assembly and the Senate, and its adoption either by referendum or by a vote of the Congress (the two chambers convened in Versailles) with a three-fifths majority of the votes cast.

In Lebanon, in the absence of a Senate since 1927, legislative power is exercised solely by the Chamber of Representatives, as indicated in Article 16 of the Constitution. According to Articles 76 and 77 of the Constitution, amendments can be initiated by the president of the Republic or the House.

Constitutional Amendment: The Lebanese Procedure

Article 76 stipulates that the Constitution can be amended at the initiative of the president of the Republic, who submits a draft constitutional law to the government. Article 77 allows amendments to be initiated by Parliament. Such amendments require approval by a two-thirds majority of the MPs present. If the government approves the Chamber's proposal, it must submit a draft law within four months. In case of disagreement, the Chamber can insist with a three-quarters majority, prompting the president of the Republic to either accept the amendment or dissolve the government and call for new elections within three months.

When a government is in place and a president is elected, a constitutional amendment requires consensus between the executive and legislative branches. Without such consensus, the legislative branch can override, potentially resulting in the dissolution of Parliament.

Previous Amendments

In 1995, Parliament extended President Elias Hrawi’s mandate by three years through a draft law prepared by Rafic Hariri’s government. In 1998, an amendment to Article 49 allowed the election of Emile Lahoud, then Commander-in-Chief of the Army. In September 2004, Hariri’s cabinet, with Syrian regime backing, passed a draft law extending Lahoud’s mandate by three years.

Institutional Deadlock Since 2006

Following the end of the Syrian occupation in 2005, which later gave way to Hezbollah's growing influence, Lebanese institutions began to erode. Then-Speaker Nabih Berri held Parliament hostage, refusing to recognize Fouad Siniora’s government and blocking the presidential election after Lahoud’s term ended in 2007. It was only in May 2008, after Hezbollah’s clashes in Beirut and Mount Lebanon, that the Doha Agreement facilitated the election of Army Commander Michel Sleiman to the presidency.

The Berri-Tabbara Precedent

During Sleiman’s 2008 election, several MPs highlighted the absence of a constitutional amendment to allow the election of a first-category public official. Speaker Berri relied on a study by former Justice Minister Bahij Tabbara, who argued that in the event of a presidential vacancy, the election could proceed under Article 74 of the Constitution. This article stipulates that Parliament convenes immediately in case of a presidential vacuum to elect a new president, bypassing eligibility restrictions for first-category officials.

The Current Debate: Amending the Constitution for Joseph Aoun

The debate persists over whether a constitutional amendment is necessary to elect Joseph Aoun. His opponents denounce the unconstitutionality of the move and claim that Parliament, as an electoral body, cannot amend the Constitution. However, some concede that it could convene a legislative session to pass laws in the event of a vacancy.

General Aoun could still be elected even if the Berri-Tabbara precedent from 2007 is not invoked this time. A constitutional amendment requires the approval of two-thirds of MPs, as stipulated in Article 79. Thus, Aoun, or any ineligible candidate, would need to secure more than 87 votes to amend the Constitution before the election or be directly elected if Parliament considers that achieving this two-thirds majority constitutes a tacit amendment to the Constitution.

Quorum and Prospects

Whatever method is chosen, any candidate must secure 87 votes to meet the quorum and enable the election. The question remains whether obstructionist MPs will allow the election of a president they cannot control or if Lebanon, post-January 9, will remain under militia dominance, with blocked institutions and a prolonged presidential crisis.