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3. The Reasons Behind Yoav Gallant's Dismissal

It would be naive to suggest that this moment wasn’t bound to come eventually. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was dismissed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday evening, a move that marks the culmination of months of mounting tensions between the two political figures.

Minister Israel Katz will replace Gallant as Defense Minister, while the Foreign Ministry will be handed to Gideon Sa'ar. It is worth noting that neither of the two has significant military experience. However, Katz served in the cabinet during the war that Israel launched against Hamas following the deadly attack by the Palestinian group on October 7, 2023, and later against Hezbollah when it opened a southern front in support of its Palestinian ally. This experience could be an asset in his new position.

Just over a month ago, relations between Netanyahu and Gallant appeared to have returned to a semblance of normalcy, following the assassination of Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, and the large-scale offensive launched against Lebanon to neutralize Hezbollah. A temporary, almost reluctant alliance had formed, born out of a shared wartime effort in Lebanon. However, today, the rift at the top of the Israeli government has resurfaced, indicating a division that can no longer be ignored.

The dismissal can be explained by a combination of complex factors. The official statement points to an irreparable breakdown of trust between the prime minister and his defense minister, a particularly delicate issue during a time of conflict on multiple fronts, where cohesion within the executive and strategic unity are essential. However, this terse explanation obscures subtler dynamics and deeper disagreements that warrant closer examination.

This dismissal occurs amid a unique context. The decision was made public on the same day as the United States presidential election, which pitted Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris against former Republican President Donald Trump. The new Trump administration is likely to offer unwavering support to Israel to "finish the job," despite strained personal relations with Netanyahu.

For the Biden administration, now nearing the end of its term, this dismissal weakens one of the strongest relationships between Israel and the US, depriving the White House of one of its most influential channels to Tel Aviv and complicating any prospects for a ceasefire before the presidential inauguration in January. This is especially significant, given the historically strained relationship between Netanyahu and Biden, mainly due to strategic disagreements over the wars in Gaza and Lebanon. According to several US sources, Gallant had near-daily exchanges with his American counterpart, Lloyd Austin. This direct link helped somewhat restore bilateral trust following the destabilizing episode of Nasrallah's assassination, which had caught the US off guard.

Another possible explanation for Gallant’s dismissal lies in his alleged opposition to the “generals’ plan.” Inspired by the vision of former Israeli general Giora Eiland and outlined in two articles published at the outset of the conflict, the plan advocates making life in northern Gaza unbearable, with the goal of starving residents and forcing them to relocate south. Eiland argues that those who remain would be considered Hamas members or sympathizers, making them legitimate targets. The strategic objective is to empty northern Gaza of its population, isolating Hamas from its social base and forcing it to surrender.

For over a year, no area in Gaza has been spared from Israeli attacks. However, the focus on northern Gaza, and particularly on Jabalia, is justified by several factors. Northern Gaza, especially Gaza City, is home to more than half of the Strip's population, and Jabalia remains a historic stronghold of Hamas support, where the group continues to regroup despite repeated airstrikes since October. By tightening its grip on this area, Israel is pursuing a strategy of forced displacement and territorial control. Last September, several Israeli generals approved Eiland's plan and presented it to the government. Netanyahu then informed Israeli lawmakers that he was considering adopting the “generals' plan,” as recently recalled by the Associated Press. Two weeks later, the siege of northern Gaza and the ground invasion of Jabalia began, despite Gallant's reservations.

The exemption from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews is another point of contention within the government, particularly between the prime Minister and Gallant. This issue has grown more urgent since the October 7 attack and the current conflict, which has resulted in the loss of over 780 Israeli soldiers. Approximately 300,000 citizens have been mobilized as reservists. In this context, the exemption granted to thousands of ultra-Orthodox Jews has fueled a profound sense of injustice within Israeli society, especially among those putting their lives on the line at the front.

Despite the government's efforts to integrate more ultra-Orthodox youth into the military, the results have been disappointing. During the first phase of the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) conscription plan last summer, the Israeli army sent out 3,000 call-up orders, but only 230 men showed up at the enlistment centers. In response to this failure, Gallant approved the issuance of 7,000 additional summonses the next week despite opposition from Netanyahu, who fears alienating the ultra-Orthodox political base, upon which he relies.

The Israeli ultra-Orthodox community continues to strongly oppose conscription, seeing it as a threat to their religious values. On the other hand, the idea of broader military mobilization has gained growing support among the general population, with calls for a fairer distribution of military service responsibilities becoming more vocal. In 2023, 63,000 young Haredim were registered as eligible for service, but decades of legislative and judicial efforts to address the issue have yet to yield a lasting solution.

With Israel Katz, a Likud member since 1998 and a longtime close ally of Netanyahu, now at the helm of the Ministry of Defense, increased cooperation with the prime minister is expected, particularly amid the multi-front war. Katz is unlikely to stray from Netanyahu’s strategic direction; instead, he appears set to implement the political, electoral, military and ideological agenda established by the prime minister. This new alignment at the top could bring greater coherence to military decisions, aimed at addressing Israel's current security challenges while reinforcing internal stability in line with Netanyahu’s strategic priorities.