As Washington and other global actors push for a ceasefire in Gaza, striving to broker a deal between Israel and Hamas amid the devastating conflict that has claimed over 40,000 lives so far, tensions between Israel and Lebanon are dangerously close to escalating. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirmed his threat of military action on Sunday, directing the Israeli military and security forces to brace for a shift in the situation.
In this intricate landscape, the Paris Quintet (which includes France, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Egypt and Qatar) has re-engaged in efforts to reconcile Lebanon’s political divisions, aiming to broker an agreement on a third candidate for the presidency and secure international backing. Will they succeed, or is this effort simply a way to fill the gap and highlight international concern?
The Quintet’s efforts come as the Biden administration seeks to implement a ceasefire in Gaza before the US elections, presenting a new, revised proposal that includes a hostage release. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has announced that the administration aims to finalize a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia before Biden’s term ends, with reports suggesting that 90% of the agreement has already been completed. Blinken is therefore urging both Israel and Hamas to “collaborate” on resolving the remaining issues, including the Israeli military's presence at five sites along the Philadelphi Route and the terms for withdrawal after an initial 42-day phase, as well as finalizing the specifics of a prisoner exchange involving Hamas hostages and Israeli detainees.
Biden has criticized Netanyahu for obstructing the hostage release deal, while the latter remains opposed to a permanent ceasefire. The US has shifted from negotiation to imposition with its new proposal, after Hamas accused Israel of sabotaging Biden’s plan.
As for the Lebanese presidential election, according to diplomatic sources, “it will remain stalled as long as there are no new developments in the region, no significant changes in Lebanese positions and no ceasefire in Gaza. The situation is further complicated by ongoing military actions, with Hezbollah opening a supportive front for Hamas and distracting Israel."
In response to these developments, the Quintet members have assigned their roles accordingly. The Americans, Egyptians and Qataris are working towards a ceasefire before the US elections, in line with Biden's wishes. However, according to sources aligned with the Republican Party, achieving a ceasefire before the US elections is challenging, as it could lead to the downfall of Netanyahu's government and his prosecution, and to the collapse of his strategic positioning between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Netanyahu is determined to avoid a repeat of the 2016 scenario. Back then, he was fearing a Clinton victory and a Trump defeat – Trump’s win was an unexpected outcome. Consequently, Netanyahu aims to keep his strategic options open. Meanwhile, French and Saudi officials in the Quintet have focused on the stalled Lebanese presidential election, which has been deadlocked since June 14, 2023. This follows Iran’s assurance to France that it “does not interfere in the election, as it is within the purview of the ‘Sayyed,’ and is best understood by the Lebanese people themselves.” Their efforts are being conducted under an unofficial mandate from Washington and Cairo.
The Quintet ambassadors' meetings with various political forces and officials have sparked a sense of relief and readiness to elect a president. The Quintet is urging action, warning that missing this crucial window could delay the election until the summer of 2025. There are also growing fears that Lebanon could be adversely affected by ongoing conflicts in Gaza, the West Bank and southern Lebanon if a ceasefire isn’t reached. These concerns have intensified following the United Nations Security Council’s unanimous renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate, with Russia abstaining.
The positions revealed by the Quintet ambassadors during their meetings were particularly notable. One Quintet member noted that “progress is being made in the negotiations, and the Biden administration is pushing for a ceasefire to leverage in the election campaign. The renewal of UNIFIL depends on having a president in place to implement Resolution 1701, address the 13 disputed points and finalize border delineations. Lebanon needs a president who can actively engage in regional negotiations, ensuring the country is a participant at the table rather than merely a topic of discussion.”
A Western diplomat wonders what French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian brought back from Saudi Arabia, and what he would return with if he chose to revisit Lebanon. This will be decided at the Quintet’s meeting on September 14, according to one of its members. Moreover, the Quintet’s efforts are set to resume in conjunction with US pressure for a ceasefire and efforts to create a positive climate.
Arab sources indicate that “the Riyadh meeting was promising and could help shift the presidential election process from stagnation to actionable progress, with an emphasis on softening the positions of all parties, particularly the obstructionist axis, 'Al-Mumanaa.' Following this, Le Drian is expected to continue his diplomatic efforts with visits to Egypt and Qatar.”
According to Quintet sources, their efforts alone will not resolve the presidential vacuum unless political forces are willing to compromise. While Amal and Hezbollah remain committed to supporting Sleiman Frangieh, Hezbollah has shown notable flexibility, influenced by concerns about the “day after,” the potential settlement deal and the possibility of a Trump presidency. Amal and Hezbollah have acknowledged the potential for a ceasefire and a deal being negotiated between Washington and Tehran, which has led them to show greater flexibility with external actors to advance the presidential election.
Since June 14, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri has suspended calls for an election session due to a lack of consensus and the opposition bloc’s rejection of his three-point approach, “dialogue, consensus and election,” calling instead for adherence to constitutional procedures to elect a president. Consequently, the Moderation Bloc has renewed its efforts to resolve the presidential impasse, seeking to form a new government capable of making crucial decisions to address the crisis and to provide the Quintet with a revised draft of the bloc’s initiative.
One Quintet ambassador reveals that there is broad agreement on pursuing a settlement that respects the existing power dynamics and aligns with the criteria established by the group for the future president, so that his appointment to Baabda represents neither a victory for one political faction, nor a defeat for another. Instead, the president should maintain positive relations with all political parties and act as an impartial mediator in conflicts, rather than taking sides. The ambassador adds that “the presidential impasse is now a critical matter for the political factions, and they cannot avoid their responsibility by pointing to disagreements among the Quintet ambassadors over specific mechanisms or candidates. Moreover, the Quintet ambassadors agree on allowing the Lebanese people to select their president independently, with international and Arab stakeholders avoiding involvement in the naming process.” If domestic efforts to elect a president fail, the focus may shift to the army commander-in-chief. In this scenario, external actors, particularly Washington, could impose a candidate once a deal with Iran is finalized and after ensuring the new administration's support under the banner of “Lebanon's revival and its reintegration into regional and international spheres.”
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