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The Israeli war against the Gaza Strip and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have overshadowed the events in Sudan, including the armed conflict that has been raging since April 2023. This is happening amidst international and Arab indifference towards resolving the rift between the two warring military factions: the official Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces.
The international community is turning a blind eye to the Sudanese people’s largest humanitarian tragedy, with over 6 million internally displaced persons enduring severe conditions of hunger, fear and anxiety. This figure is compounded by an additional 3 million who were forced to flee their homes and villages due to previous conflicts in Darfur, Blue Nile and other regions.
According to United Nations reports, humanitarian assistance is urgently needed for around 25 million Sudanese, including approximately 14 million children. Food insecurity affects about 37% of the population, totaling almost 17.7 million people. Note that these figures are in millions, not hundreds or even thousands.
At the political level, the gravity of the above figures confirms a negative balance between the warring factions, neither of which has been able to prevail militarily. This situation may prolong the war unless there is an Arab or international political intervention aimed at achieving a settlement, taking into account the various developments that happened since the outbreak of the war over a year ago.
The military capabilities of both sides vary significantly: the armed forces wield exclusive control over the air force, used to bombard the Rapid Support Forces, while the Rapid Support Forces control large territories. This negative dynamic complicates the situation and makes it harder, but may, from a different angle, stimulate a political solution to the crisis, one that is driven by internal agreement under external auspices.
The direct and indirect factors behind the military conflict cannot be ignored, especially after the abortion of the modest “democratic” experiment in the military coup that toppled Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdouk’s government on October 25, 2021. This event exacerbated internal conflicts between the regular army led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemeti.
In the constitutional document reached in 2019, Article 1 stated the following: “The Republic of Sudan is an independent, sovereign, democratic, parliamentary, pluralist, decentralized state, where rights and obligations are based on citizenship without discrimination built on race, religion, culture, gender, color, type, social or economic status, political opinion, disability, regional affiliation, or any other reasons.”
Certainly, the 2021 military coup nullified most provisions of the constitutional document and turned the clock back. Today, the conflict in Sudan represents a direct struggle to seize power, and poses a genuine threat to the country’s unity and future. Addressing this situation requires innovative approaches to break the deadlock, as the specter of division looms again amid escalating rhetoric of rancor and hatred.
Investing in Sudan, with its abundant agricultural resources and natural wealth spread across vast territories, represents a significant developmental opportunity for the country and its future generations. However, these resources are being squandered daily amidst the raging fires of conflict, foreshadowing dire consequences, not just for Sudan but also for the broader Arab region and for Africa.
