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Conflict scenarios are complex and foreshadow cycles of destructive violence resembling total war. Diplomacy has proven ineffective in containing the recurrent rounds of violence and offering an alternative road map to the dominant ideological and strategic impasses and power politics. The Palestinians are still subjected to the sway of the Iranian political handler, unable to rebuild a modicum of political autonomy and get off the beaten tracks of open-ended conflicts. The radicalization of the Israeli political landscape doesn’t seem to abate, driven by ideological reasons as well as security concerns arising throughout the triangular arc of conflicts. The imbroglios of the truce proposal betray the Hamas’s irredentism and Israel’s determination to overcome strategic obstacles along its borders.
The unrelenting battles in Gaza and south Lebanon testify to the interlocking conflict dynamics and fields, the sheer impact of international and regional power politics, the enduring security threats to Israel, and Hamas’s moral callousness and indifference to the tragic plight of the Palestinian civilians. The fate of the Israeli hostages is overlooked as a human rights and major political issue, instead being used as a discretionary trump card. Conversely, Israel’s current approach is narrowly focused on military issues, neglecting broader political objectives. The resignation of Israeli opposition leader Benny Gantz doesn’t seem to affect the war cabinet or question its strategic orientations. The diplomatic short-shrift mediation offered by the United States administration is unlikely to gain salience unless it questions the ideological and strategic mortgages and their impasses.
The projected truce is unlikely to open up political space unless accompanied by a viable political plan that both parties can endorse. Disagreements cut across the inner political conflicts on both sides and put at stake the likelihood of a consensual political approach. The Israelis, while agreeing on the immediate security issues, are still deeply divided over the prospects of an Israeli-Palestinian negotiated political solution. The Palestinians are entangled in power politics, unable to build an independent national platform and engage with Israel and the international community, hindered by ideological blindfolders activated through the incessant combustions of an open-ended conflict.
The Lebanese and Syrian aisles of the conflict arc are under pressure, as the disintegration of both countries fuels Iran’s expansionist ambitions and supports its subversion strategy. We are dealing with an integrated platform that accounts for the unfolding military and political dynamics. Conflict resolution diplomacy should be based on integrated predicates if it were to address the issues of de-escalation, demilitarization, security zones and internationalization of security issues. The truce proposals are of a tactical and intermediary nature, and can never replace a comprehensive strategy that addresses the shortcomings of piecemeal policymaking. One can hardly imagine the Israelis compromising their security for the sake of transient interludes with no scope.
The defeat of Hamas after eight months of combat in dense urban areas has become inevitable if this war is to end and break the unending cycles of violence. As for the situation in south Lebanon and the Golan Heights, the breakdown of Lebanese statehood, the state of lingering civil war prevailing over Syria, and the politics of surrogate warfare adroitly operated by the Iranian regime are unlikely to be accommodated by the Israelis after October 7, 2023. One can hardly see a way out of this deadlock unless the strategic imbalances are addressed. The irenic wishful thinking remains idle talk unless it leads to tangible political outcomes that put an end to war cycles and usher in an era of sustainable peacemaking.
