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Since the announcement of the European parliamentary election results, there has been a surge of political and non-political analyses to understand their anticipated impact on the “old” continent and their implications for the future European trajectory. These concerns were amplified by the swift and surprising move by French President Emmanuel Macron, who invoked the constitution to dissolve the French Parliament and call for new elections.
Interpretations varied, with some believing that far-right and populist movements would dominate the scene, while others thought their influence would remain relatively limited. Many opinions leaned towards affirming that populist right-wingers would steer the new European Parliament’s agenda. Yet, a more precise analysis of the election results suggests they will undoubtedly influence the parliament’s agenda and legislation during its five-year term, but not to the extent of “complete control.”
Anti-climate change sentiment, anti-immigrant and anti-immigration feelings, reaching unprecedented levels of nationalistic chauvinism in some instances, dominated much of the political and economic discourse and even the election campaigns leading up to the voting day. High unemployment rates in some European economies, often blamed on immigrants, were also central to these discussions.
However, many recent political experiences indicate numerous populist slogans that headline election campaigns, public rallies, and television interviews do not fully make their way into the halls of power once their proponents assume office. They often find that the political game requires a certain degree of flexibility in some areas and compromises in others to keep the wheels of governance turning and to avoid falling out of the “paradise of power” due to specific political or institutional balances. This occurred, for example, with Giorgia Meloni, Head of Italian Government, who adapted to the political reality to some extent, while not abandoning her core slogans.
Naturally, this perspective does not imply that the threat of populism and the far-right truly dominating Europe is non-existent or not comparable, as some suggest, to the rise of Nazism and Fascism in the 1930s, which practically led to the outbreak of World War II, causing the deaths of millions worldwide.
However, lacking an overwhelming majority means that populist agendas will not smoothly progress, even though they will be strongly debated and become more audible across Europe and the entire world.
Considering all of the above, it is inevitable to interpret the recent election results as reflecting, in part, a general European public dissatisfaction with the state of European democracy, as mirrored in some recent polls showing that less than half of European Union citizens are satisfied with democracy and how it functions in their countries.
Additionally, another issue relates to what can be described as the shared European space, where most voting patterns were based on national issues rather than common European concerns. This requires that, in the future, European parties focus on shared issues among the continent’s peoples alongside their local or national interests.
In any case, Europe and its member states will undoubtedly encounter new turning points following these elections, with numerous challenges ahead, such as those France will face in the wake of Macron’s major political gamble. His coexistence, in the remaining period of his presidential term, with a majority possibly led by Marine Le Pen and her party will certainly not be a political walk in the park; rather, it will be more complex and challenging than the political coexistence experiences France underwent during the presidencies of late François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac.
