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Contested within his own country and criticized by the international community for his handling of the Gaza war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be continuing his forward escape. Entangled in corruption scandals, he is playing his political survival and turning the war into a personal matter, which might potentially lead to a regionalization of the conflict.
Unpopular in Israel
Already embroiled in three corruption cases, Netanyahu has become particularly unpopular in Israel following his judicial reform, which sparked massive protests. This unpopularity has intensified with the war in Gaza due to the lack of anticipation of the October 7 attack and lack of commitment to the release of hostages.
Netanyahu advocates for a “total victory” against Hamas and rejects any negotiation with the Islamist movement. This policy doesn’t sit well with the families of hostages who believe that their fate is not the government’s priority. Furthermore, the Prime Minister’s warmongering stance has, to date, only led to the release of one hostage, with several others dying under Israeli bombs. These results raise concerns about the survival of the remaining 132 hostages, especially given the scale of Israeli bombardments.
In response to this situation, protests are multiplying in Israel, where thousands of people demonstrated in Tel Aviv on Saturday to demand the return of hostages and call for Netanyahu’s resignation. Protests also took place outside the Prime Minister’s residence in Jerusalem, with hundreds of demonstrators in attendance.
In addition to increasingly sharp criticism from Israeli society, many disagreements have tarnished the unity of the Israeli government and war cabinet. Netanyahu seems to be going his own way and reportedly did not inform the Chief of Staff of the Israeli army, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant or the head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, of the agreement providing for the transport of medicine to Gaza for the hostages, according to information reported by the Jerusalem Post. All three learned about it from the media, leading to a delay in implementing the agreement.
Disagreements also exist in the strategy to follow in Gaza. Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot support a ceasefire to release the remaining hostages, with the possibility of facing Hamas again in the future left open. On the other hand, Netanyahu and Gallant insist on continuing the military operation to achieve the release of hostages, believing that a ceasefire would weaken Israel and lead to new Hamas attacks in the future.
This lack of government cohesion could ultimately lead to dissolution and early elections, which the Israeli opposition is strongly calling for. Especially since, according to estimates, the coalition led by Netanyahu would lose elections if held soon.
Tensions With the United States
Despite the unconditional support of the United States for Israel, relations between Biden and Netanyahu are strained. The issue is a phone conversation between the two leaders that ended with a categorical refusal from Netanyahu. He rejects American demands, especially those regarding the two-state solution.
In a video posted on social media, the Israeli Prime Minister stated that he would continue to oppose the creation of a Palestinian state, which he believes would pose an existential threat to Israel.
The Americans, on the other hand, want to decrease the intensity of the conflict in Gaza and improve the delivery of humanitarian aid to avoid, to the extent possible, regionalizing the conflict. President Biden is preparing for the upcoming elections, and the widely circulated images of the Gaza conflict on social media have stirred a part of US public opinion. He also hopes for normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which requires discussions about the creation of a Palestinian state.
As the conflict continues, the US is growing increasingly frustrated with Netanyahu’s lack of collaboration. President Biden is reported to be “fed up,” limiting contacts with the Israeli Prime Minister, whom he considers to be “ungrateful” for US support.
Profound disagreements could push them to turn to the Israeli opposition. According to reports from the Jerusalem Post, senior US officials have met with members of the opposition, a sign that Washington is preparing the ground for post-Netanyahu. During his last visit to Israel, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly met separately with other Israeli leaders, including opposition leader Yair Lapid.
War for Power
Faced with both local and international protests, Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have chosen his path. His goal is clear: to continue the war, even if that entails opening a second front in Lebanon to stay in power.
By obtaining a “total victory,” he hopes to make Israelis forget his shortcomings, especially those of the October 7 attack. For this, he relies on a discourse promoting Israel’s security at all costs. “Those who talk about the post-Netanyahu period are talking about the creation of a Palestinian state,” he declared, adding that an Israeli prime minister must be “able to say no to our friends”—an explicit attack on his opponents, whom he accuses of wanting to sell the country’s security. To him, these accusations justify his stay in power despite repeated calls for early elections. Yet it is for these upcoming elections that he continues to criticize his opponents.
However, such an uncompromising policy will have consequences on Israel’s security in the long run. Without a viable peace plan, the Hebrew state is heading towards a perpetual conflict, which certainly suits Netanyahu. He says he wants to continue the war until Hamas is “eliminated,” a wish that still seems distant on the ground despite more than four months of war.
But faced with the obvious superiority of the Israeli army, Netanyahu cannot indefinitely postpone early elections. Unless, of course, a second front opens in the North with Hezbollah …
