Israel and Gaza are currently engaged in conflict following a bold and unexpected military operation initiated by Hamas on Saturday morning. This offensive involved the firing of thousands of rockets, infiltration of fighters into Israeli territory, and the capture of Israelis. Israel has already waged four wars against Palestinian militants in Gaza since its forces and settlers withdrew from the coastal strip in 2005: in 2008, 2012, 2014, and 2021.
Why now?
The date chosen by Hamas to launch its offensive is not random: October 6 has long held significance for many Arabs.
The Hamas offensive coincides with the last day of the Jewish holiday of Sukkot, a period of relative calm when the country is populated by pilgrims and tourists during the school holiday season.
It also marks fifty years and one day since the start of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War that caught Israel completely by surprise on Yom Kippur (the Jewish Day of Atonement), resulting in the death of 2,600 Israelis and at least 9,500 deaths and disappearances on the Arab side in three weeks of combat.
It is one of the few moments when their armies, primarily Egypt’s, managed to erase decades of humiliation inflicted by the Israeli war machine.
Although the aftermath of the 1973 War – known as the “Yom Kippur War” by Israel and the West and the “October War” by Arabs – demonstrated a Pyrrhic victory for both sides, Arab pride remained intact, and to this day, neighborhoods, streets, and even cities bear the name of this military achievement.
A crucial achievement during this conflict was the crossing of the Egyptian army over the Suez Canal, forcing Israeli forces to retreat into the Sinai Peninsula. Eventually, Israeli troops encircled the third Egyptian army in the desert, coming within approximately 100 km of Cairo. This war significantly undermined Israeli confidence in the invincibility of its military, leading to the downfall of Golda Meir’s government.
Most importantly, the October War allowed Anwar Sadat to negotiate from a position of strength with Israel and conclude a historic peace agreement in 1979, facilitated by the Camp David Accords. As a result, Israel returned all Egyptian territories occupied in Sinai, although Sadat was unable to secure any concessions regarding the Palestinian conflict. Much of Iranian propaganda rests today on this historical and ideological connection.
The rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia
Since July 2023, there has been a flurry of statements and events indicating the potential normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Media outlets have been inundated with analyses, editorials, and official and unofficial statements from both Saudis and Israelis.
“Leaks” of information and details about the form and substance of the future peace treaty have fueled discussions, as have speculations on the positions of the two parties and, especially, the margin of compromise they can afford.
Then, a significant turning point occurred: the Saudi Kingdom received, for the first time in its history, two Israeli ministers within two weeks. Although these visits were not directly related to the ongoing negotiations, they marked an unprecedented advancement in the relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the custodian of Islam’s two most important holy sites.
For Iran, a concerning matter
Saudi Crown Prince and in fact leader of the country, Mohammad bin Salman, had already taken a very significant step by re-establishing diplomatic relations with Iran on March 10, 2023, in negotiations held under Chinese auspices.
Relations between these two regional powers have been severed since 2016. However, normalization is progressing gradually, with no major changes, except for an occasionally violated ceasefire on the Yemeni front, where Iran and Saudi Arabia had been waging a proxy war since 2014.
The announcement of a possible Saudi-Israeli peace, which could weigh heavily on the rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh and even potentially undermine it, is not something the Iranian regime is likely to welcome.
Moreover, some argue that several Arab countries could follow the Saudi example in the months following a potential peace agreement. Netanyahu himself stated that around ten Arab countries were ready to follow the Saudis.
The role of Hamas
Confronted with this situation, Iran had to take action. For the Islamic Republic, this operation was relatively due to the extensive network it had quietly cultivated across the Middle East over the years, despite sanctions. Hamas, the military arm of Iran in Gaza, was prepared to launch an offensive.
Since its inception, the Islamic Revolution has aimed to champion the cause of oppressed and persecuted Muslims, regardless of their ethnicity, Arab or non-Arab, Shiite or Sunni.
The Iranian regime wants to show that Iran is the only honest, powerful, and determined guarantor of rectifying the injustices suffered by the Muslim nation. In this context, the Palestinian cause holds a special place. It mobilizes both Arabs and non-Arabs alike. It is ethically defensible for many.
Moreover, successive Israeli governments, often backed by varying degrees of American and European support, have failed to improve their standing in the eyes of Palestinian advocates.
This situation provides an ideal opportunity for the Iranian ideological machinery, which seeks expansion and influence in the region.
Why is this operation unprecedented?
The Iran of the mullahs, relying on the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, or Sepah-e Pasdaran), learned from the failures of the Arab-Israeli wars. Faced with the incredible Israeli war machine, it opted for guerrilla warfare, terrorism, and, in an unofficial way, strategic nuclear threats.
The IRGC focused on new weapons, including drones (they even export them to Putin) and missiles of various ranges, which, while lacking precision, possess significant destructive power. These weapons are known for their effectiveness due to their technological simplicity, low cost, and availability in large quantities.
Saturday’s operation involved a new weapon: the ULM, the French acronym for Ultra-Light Motorized, which is a motorized paraglider that allowed Hamas fighters to breach the Israeli barrier and attack Kibbutzim and other Israeli military installations along the Gaza border.
What will be the consequences?
Based on the latest images, because this is primarily a war of images, Benjamin Netanyahu and Mohammed bin Salman may have to postpone their peace talks, even freezing the entire process for some time. Neither the Arab peoples, surprised by the military achievements of Hamas, nor, especially, the Israelis, are now willing to entertain any compromises favoring either side – Israel for the former, and the Palestinians for the latter.
The current situation resembles that which followed a certain Ariel Sharon’s stroll on the Temple Mount – an event that ended all hope of peace in this conflict.
Moreover, it should be noted that Iran is a member of an alliance that includes Putin’s Russia and Erdogan’s Turkey. The latter is preparing for municipal elections, where he hopes to achieve a true landslide victory following his less overwhelming win in the presidential election. Hamas’ operation thus presents an unexpected opportunity to mobilize his supporters. Just today, he warned Israel against “any harm to the Al-Aqsa Mosque.”
Further north, Vladimir Putin, embroiled in the Ukrainian conflict, has much to gain from some respite. An intense and highly publicized conflict in Gaza will sufficiently divert attention (and cameras) from the war in Ukraine.
While it may not change the course of the war, it will allow Moscow to undertake certain actions without fearing a commensurate response from the rest of the world, such as the use of tactical nuclear weapons, an intensification of strikes in populated areas, or a military escalation in the Syrian theater.
