A new chapter in the Iran-West story: according to the British newspaper The Guardian, London, Berlin, and Paris have reportedly decided not to lift their sanctions against Tehran in October. Despite the US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal under Trump in 2018 and subsequent violations by Tehran, the three European powers have remained in the agreement.

The United Kingdom, Germany, and France are expected to announce their intention to break the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, for the first time.

According to The Guardian, the three European powers have decided not to lift sanctions related to Tehran’s use of missiles in October, as required by the agreement.

Centrifuges at the Iranian nuclear research site of Natanz.

Former US President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA in 2018. However, despite Iran’s reaction to violate the agreed conditions, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom stayed in the agreement. Tehran has pushed the limits allowed by the agreement regarding the quality and quantity of enriched uranium.

Tehran is closer than ever to producing military-grade uranium, claiming to have produced enriched uranium up to 60%, while the agreement capped enrichment at 3.67%.

An atomic bomb requires enrichment of the fissile material to over 90%. Consequently, The Guardian questions the risk posed by the European decision.

The justification cited by the EU and British diplomats included Iran’s violation of the agreement and Iran’s sale of drones to Russia, which Moscow used in its invasion of Ukraine.

Rafael Grossi during a press conference with the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO), Mohammad Eslami, in Tehran last March.

Europeans are also concerned about possible future transfers of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia.

The head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, admitted last week that an agreement on monitoring the Iranian nuclear program had become very limited and fragmented.

Iranian lawmakers opposed installing about ten security cameras at centrifuge production sites in Isfahan.

The 2015 nuclear agreement included a series of dates or so-called sunset clauses through which certain sanctions against entities were supposed to be lifted by the West. However, in 2015, it was not anticipated that the agreement would be so widely violated.

EU sanctions are set to expire on October 18 under a UN resolution that enshrines the 2015 nuclear deal. The sanctions “called on” Iran to refrain from any activities related to ballistic missiles that could carry nuclear weapons.

They also prohibited anyone from buying, selling, or transferring drones and their components capable of flying over 300 km (186 miles) to or from Iran without prior authorization from the UN Security Council, which was not granted.

The US Special Envoy for Iran, Rob Malley.

The US State Department said no agreement was in sight, but the negotiation was overshadowed by the unpaid suspension of US Special Envoy for Iran, Rob Malley. Several media outlets have mentioned an issue related to the handling of sensitive documents.

Malley, the childhood friend of Secretary of State Antony Blinken, was one of the architects of the Iranian nuclear deal. He had his diplomatic immunity removed pending an investigation.

Georges Haddad with The Guardian, Reuters, and AFP

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