Plot twist in Turkey! On Sunday, May 14, the presidential elections resulted in a surprising outcome, creating a tense political situation in the country. The incumbent president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, known for his longevity in power, failed to surpass the 50% threshold of the votes, while the opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu obtained nearly 45% of the votes. This unexpected scenario made a second round inevitable to determine the two leading candidates.
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More than an ordinary democratic civic duty, the Turkish elections have revealed an increasing polarization of the electorate, with a growing opposition popularity and a desire for change. As expected, the opposition managed to mobilize significant support within its ranks, although not enough votes for a first-round victory. For the first time since 2003, they clearly demonstrated their ability to compete with Erdogan and his party, the AKP.
The upcoming ballot on May 28th will determine whether Erdogan can extend his rule or if the opposition can gather enough votes to win the presidency. However, how should we analyze the results of the recent May 14th election? What can we expect for the second round?
Champagne or Prayer mat
The political landscape in Turkey reveals deep polarization, as evidenced by the election results. Each election highlights the two sides of Turkey. The coast represents a more liberal current, while the center is more conservative. Beyond the choice between two candidates, voters must choose between two ways of life. On one hand, there are those who are religiously conservative, Sunni Muslims, favoring a hierarchical
power structure, patriarchy, and being hostile to the West. On the other hand, there are those who are more open, favoring consensus and being pro-Western. Bekir Bozdag, Mr. Erdogans Minister of Justice, perfectly summarized this pattern before the election by stating: “On May 14th, Turks will have a choice between raising their champagne glass or prostrating themselves on the prayer”.
In this case, Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains in a position of strength for the second round, while the preliminary results of the parliamentary elections held on the same day give the ruling alliance a clear absolute majority. Simultaneously, the far-right MHP party led by Devlet Bahçeli, Erdogans indispensable ally, clearly managed to mobilize its electorate, contrary to the predictions of the polls. Furthermore, the ruling alliance exceeded expectations in the regions affected by the destructive earthquake in February, achieving exceptionally high results in the cities of Kahramanmaras, Gaziantep, and the Hatay region.
Erdogans Network of Influence
Several factors are put forward to explain the unexpected resilience of the ultraconservative Islamic current embodied by President Erdogan.
Conservative Muslims may have reservations about voting for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who has claimed his Alevi faith, a minority religious current in Turkey that is often stigmatized. At the same time, Erdogans undeniable strength, repeatedly demonstrating his ability to use state
resources to his advantage, has also played a crucial role. The president has built a vast network of influence in the business sector, establishing significant clientelistic and dependent relationships, especially in regions where the economic and social situation
is concerning.
The big unknown of this election is the transfer of votes from the third candidate Sinan Ogan, who garnered just over 5% of the votes. It should be noted that his breakthrough in the presidential election makes him a coveted figure, and he is likely to carefully negotiate his support. On Monday morning, in an interview with the German newspaper Der Spiegel, he indicated that he would call for voting for Kılıçdaroğlu if the latter stopped supporting the pro-Kurdish HDP party. This is an extremely difficult choice for Kılıçdaroğlu, given that he heavily relied on the votes of the Kurdish electorate in the first round.
The last source of concern is the fact that the country could become ungovernable in the event of victory for the opposing coalition. Nevertheless, the opposition would have a significant margin of maneuver, as the Parliament has been reduced to a mere recording body following the constitutional reform adopted by referendum in 2017. This reform transformed the parliamentary system into a hyper-presidential system, eliminating any checks and balances. The president, who also holds the position of prime minister, wields absolute
power and governs by decrees.
A victory for Kılıçdaroğlu in the second round of the presidential election would seemingly be weakened by the good results of the ruling coalition in the legislative elections, especially since it retains its parliamentary majority. Psychologically, this will have an impact on the voters choice in the second round of the presidential election. They might consider Erdogan as the master, the guarantor of continuity. Erdogans excellent score, leading in the first round and capable of winning a third consecutive term, has been received as somewhat mixed news by AKP supporters. The prospect of two additional weeks of uncertainty until the second round scheduled for May 28th could influence an electorate that remains extremely volatile. One thing is certain, nothing is decided yet.
