The war in Ukraine was a significant opportunity for the Turkish president, who wanted to launch a new military operation in Syria against the YPG, a Kurdish militia close to the PKK. In fact, Erdogan plays the subtle role of mediator between Ukraine and Russia, making himself indispensable for Westerners, especially in the context of the negotiations regarding the issue of Ukrainian cereals.
Taking advantage of the weakened state, Syria’s Kurdish minority has a de facto state entity in the northern part of the country. This region is controlled by the YPG militia, the People’s Protection Units, an armed branch of the PYD, the Democratic Union Party, which is the main Kurdish political party in Syria. The PYD is affiliated to the PKK, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. As such, the PKK is classified as a terrorist organization by several countries, and responsible for numerous attacks in Turkey. Consequently, in March 2016, the autonomous Kurdish region “Rojava” was established. On the other hand, Turkey controls part of northwestern Syria, located around the city of Idlib, which has well over 3 million locally displaced people. Despite the reluctance of the United States, Turkey wishes to launch a new military operation, particularly targeting the towns of Tell Rifaat and Manbij, located in the Aleppo governorate.
In a meeting on June 4 with the leaders of the ruling party, the AKP, the Turkish president stated that he was working “meticulously on new operations to fill the gaps in our security line on our southern borders.” The head of state promised to proceed “step by step in other regions” subsequently. Therefore, Turkey plans to fight against the “terrorists” of the YPG, while this militia is backed by the United States as part of a coalition fighting against ISIS. In an allusion to Washington, on June 9, Erdogan said that he hoped “that none of our real allies would oppose our legitimate concerns.”
Syria is an intricate arena, where Turkish, Iranian, Russian, and Western interests intertwine. Moscow and Tehran are allies of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government. Having to cope with this reality, Erdogan will likely be able to only carry out -after the green light from other foreign powers-, a “limited operation on Tell Rifaat. This operation would put an end to the incursions of the PKK, which carries out attacks against the Turkish army in Idlib and in northern of Aleppo”, confirms a researcher who requested anonymity to Ici Beyrouth. However, even if it is limited, such an operation raises questions about the long-term viability of the autonomous territory controlled by the PYD.
According to Adel Bakawan, director of the French Research Center on Iraq: “This issue is existential to the Kurds of Syria. The balance of power between regional influences allows them to maintain a state entity. However, if these powers come to an agreement, there will be no more Kurdish state in Syria.”
Military wise, Turkey has been also extremely present in Iraq, for the past 25 years, with the presence of numerous army bases. As such, it can rely on the support of the regional government of Kurdistan, dominated by the Barzani clan, which disapproves of the PKK. Moreover, Erbil is economically dependent on Turkey, to which it sells its oil directly. Since April, Ankara has been conducting a military operation called “Closed Claw” against the PKK’s presence in the Qandil mountains (northeast of Iraq) through airstrikes and special forces interventions.
In fact, the PKK has several bases and training camps in Iraqi Kurdistan, as well as in the Sinjar region. Iraqi territory serves as a rear base from which it can carry out actions in Turkey and elsewhere. However, Turkish interventions remain limited in Iraq for the purpose of maintaining good relations with the Iraqi government, which does not welcome Turkish incursions into its territory. Moreover, the predominantly mountainous terrain is unsuitable for a large-scale land operation, as was the case in Syria.
A power game in the shadow of the war in Ukraine
As Western forces are focused on the war in Ukraine, Erdogan has more leeway to carry out a new military operation in Syria. In addition, he has enough reasons to do so thanks to his subtle role in the Ukrainian conflict. Undoubtedly, Turkey plays a mediating role by maintaining good relations with Russia and Ukraine. It has thus made itself indispensable to the West.
“Turkey plays a central role in the negotiations between Russians and Ukrainians, especially in the context of the negotiations on Ukrainian grain exports”, emphasizes Didier Billion, deputy director of IRIS. Through this strong position, the country can exert pressure to satisfy its ambitions in Syria. However, several international powers, such as the United States, Russia, and Iran, also have their own interests in the region. In late May, the United States warned Turkey against any new Turkish military operation as it would put its soldiers in harm’s way. Moreover, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated in early June that Washington opposes “any escalation in northern Syria and supports the safeguarding of the current ceasefire lines.” However, according to Didier Billion, ” there are currently ongoing negotiations between Turkey and the United States to control the activities and scope of this military operation.”
Moreover, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has shown a considerable amount of understanding during his visit to Ankara on June 8. “We fully empathize with the concerns of our friends regarding the threats instigated at their borders by outside forces. The latter fuel separatist sentiments in the territories controlled by the American units, whose presence is illegal “, he had stated. During a visit to Syria on July 2, the Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that he “understood” the Turkish concerns. But he also emphasized that “any Turkish military action in northern Syria would be a destabilizing element in the region”.
“Syria was at the heart of the negotiations during the Tehran summit that took place in July 2022 between Turkey, Russia, and Iran. The three countries are major actors in the Syrian crisis, albeit with different interests. During this meeting, Erdogan ultimately secured a green light from his Iranian and Russian counterparts. The Tehran summit was part of the framework known as the Astana Process, launched in 2017 by Russia, Turkey, and Iran, whose objective was to officially re-establish peace in Syria.
