Launched as a simple “special military operation,” in Kremlin terms, the invasion of Ukraine was supposed to last a maximum of two or three weeks. At least that’s what strategists in Moscow thought. But since February 24, 2022, Russia has been going from failure to weakening, its army is bogged down in the Ukrainian quagmire, and the Kremlin leader has fallen into his own trap. For a cornered Putin, few options remain.
Quickly sanctioned by the West after the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy is weakening. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stated on Thursday that the punitive measures taken for a year have already set the Russian economy back “a generation.” She noted that the capping of Russian exported oil prices at $60 per barrel is costing Moscow 160 million Euros per day.
Economic sanctions
The halt of Russian oil and gas flows has not caused the much-dreaded energy shock. European countries have managed to overcome this challenge by diversifying their supply sources and capping the price of a barrel.
For Russia, the fallout from Putin’s adventure will be felt, unfortunately, in the long term: no European country will bet on Russian hydrocarbons for decades. It will be too late, as the world is already during an energy transition.
Europeans have unreservedly unlocked billions of Euros to subsidize their companies and help their citizens, while a mild winter has helped cushion the impact of the withdrawal.
Of course, the energy and cereal shortages have caused global inflation. This has been partially contained through interest rate hikes, but growth has taken a serious hit.
Additionally, trade sanctions have deprived Russia of essential technological components for its industry. The latter is largely dominated by the production of metallic raw materials and by… the military industry, essential for a country at war (which, furthermore, it triggered itself). It is no coincidence that Joe Biden called Putin a dangerous “killer” who sells oil and weapons.
Due to the lack of weapons, Moscow did not hesitate to import drones and missiles from Iran. This is a humiliation for the world’s second-largest arms exporter, whose military industry is a source of national pride. Especially since Iran is a country significantly less advanced in the technological field. Can one imagine the United States importing weapons from a developing country, one day?
Military setbacks
The setbacks of the Russian army, as outrageous as they may be for a second world military power, are all the more humiliating as the Kremlin rushed to proclaim, with great fanfare, the independence of the four “people’s republics”… These puppet states corresponding to the four occupied regions, but later partly lost by the Russian forces.
The grand celebration organized during the proclamation of independence was primarily intended to show Russians that their government is on the right track… To show that the “brothers” in Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine are “liberated” from “neo-Nazis” and that the army is performing wonders on the ground.
Putin must calm the public opinion. The elites are grumbling, the people are whispering. Their disapproval is likely to worsen, especially after the unpopular mobilization of 300,000 men. Previously, the war did not bother the average Russian too much, accustomed to a low standard of living and mainly concerned with meeting their basic needs rather than dealing with politics. This is all the truer as they know that the hope for political change is minimal.
The mobilization has affected the Russian citizen personally. More than 700,000 people have taken the path of exile to escape the slaughter. They refuse to be cannon fodder. Independent reports estimate the number of dead soldiers at 180,000 on the field of dishonor. The challenge for them is all the more dangerous as they must provide their own combat uniforms, bulletproof vests, and other military equipment. The army simply does not have the means or the necessary stock to equip its soldiers!
Fragile alliances
Abroad, Putin tried to form an alliance with his allies. Despite the conferences and the clicking of cameras, China and India, the only heavyweight allies, refused to give their blessing. They instead advised Putin to avoid the war. Even the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, considered Moscow’s vassals, have given a flat refusal. As for Iran…
Nevertheless, the Kremlin continues its fiery rhetoric, boasts of its achievements, defends the “righteousness” of its “special military operation.” To generate lies, Putin can count on another “dinosaur” from the Soviet era, his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Lavrov and Putin both sucked at the teat of Soviet propaganda. They are considered virtuosos in the art of lying. Their favorite theme is World War II: Westerners are compared to Hitler, Russians are “threatened with a final solution,” Ukrainian leaders are Russophobic Nazis, etc. Words that resonate with Russians, as the USSR had exploited victory against Germany during what they themselves call the “Great Patriotic War.” A terminology specific to the Soviets, still in use, imposed by Moscow’s late participation in World War II, due to the German-Soviet pact and the division of Poland between the two dictators…
What options?
“How can he get out of this? How can he make sure he doesn’t lose face or power in Russia?” Joe Biden said last September. This statement illustrates the questions haunting Westerners about the Russian president’s intentions and how to end the war.
To these questions, even Putin does not have an answer. It’s a headlong rush. As evidence, he dragged his country into a pointless war without even considering the political, diplomatic, or economic consequences. He exposed the decay of his army and the weakness of his chain of command. Most importantly, he plunged his people into a spiral of impoverishment instead of mobilizing the (enormous) resources of the country to improve their standard of living.
How can he get out of this? Withdrawal is not on the agenda. A dictator cannot lose a war because if he loses, it means he is dead. Putin would rather sacrifice everything than appear defeated. If he does, it will mark the end of his political career and perhaps more – a condemnation.
Nuclear? Uprising?
Peace negotiations are unthinkable in the current context. Ukrainians demand their land back before any negotiation. President Macron’s efforts in this direction, the only Western leader who wants to maintain a communication channel with the Kremlin, have ended in failure. Worse, his conciliatory stance toward Putin, although justified by his desire for mediation, has backfired. Ukrainians and Westerners criticize him for his tepidness towards Russia and his timid commitment to arms deliveries to Kyiv.
There is the terrifying scenario of resorting to nuclear weapons. If Putin has not used them yet, it is because he either has some common sense left, or he knows that the American response will be automatic. Moreover, it is very likely that, like conventional weapons, the Russian nuclear arsenal is obsolete!
Some believe that a palace revolution could snatch power from Putin. The UK’s Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Tony Radakin, ruled out any possibility of assassinating the Russian president in a BBC interview last July. “As military professionals, we see a relatively stable regime in Russia. President Putin has been able to stifle any opposition (…) and no one at the top has the motivation to challenge him,” he argued.
A dangerous wounded bear
Putin now has only one possibility: to buy time. That’s what he’s doing, in fact. First, because he has no choice, and second, because he can hope for several options in the future.
He hoped for a radical change in policy from Republicans in Congress. If he didn’t get it, he can still hope for Trump’s return to power in 2024. This calculation is dangerous for two reasons: Trump has very little chance of returning to the White House, and Russia will not last that long under sanctions without real social unrest.
He cannot count on divisions among Western allies. On the contrary, the invasion of Ukraine has united them. For once, Europeans have agreed on a policy to follow. Except for the very populist Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, of course. Moreover, fatigue and indifference towards the Ukrainian cause or the rejection of any form of aid or military intervention to support Kyiv has not occurred either. Neither inflation nor the high cost of hydrocarbons has deterred governments, and especially their voters. In the absence of major electoral deadlines and resolutely isolationist parties, Ukraine is assured of stable, if not growing, Western support.
However, victory should not be declared prematurely. The bear is severely wounded, and this makes it even more dangerous. Putin has not yet used all his cards. Apart from an ill-considered nuclear act, he could perfectly well wage a war of attrition against the West. The Russian army is capable, with a large influx of fresh troops, of holding its positions in Donbass while harassing the rest of Ukraine from time to time. In this way, it would disrupt the reconstruction effort and deter foreign investors.
The master of the Kremlin, having shown many times that he is unscrupulous, could resort to the weapon of terrorism through various parties or political formations in the West. Apart from the far right, Europe and America are not short of entities or individuals willing to serve the Russians, either for ideological reasons or out of greed. Iran or North Korea (as well as Syria and, to some extent, Myanmar or Venezuela) are examples of regimes that have adapted to international isolation and all kinds of sanctions.
Georges F. Haddad
