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Although the general situation in Lebanon indicated there might be a breakthrough – between May and June at the latest – in the presidential election issue, things look grimmer now. It is almost as if the fate of Lebanon, already low on the list of world priorities, has been adjourned until after the Gaza war.
The Al-Aqsa Flood operation, which was launched over six months ago, will only end in a way that suits Israel, and this might take time, especially given that the previously rejected solutions have now been accepted by Egypt and Jordan, albeit half-heartedly, and not without alluring propositions and promises. This means that the Gaza problem will be solved sooner or later, even if this means forcibly emptying the entire strip. In the longer term, this also means the total elimination of the Palestinian cause, knowing that dealing with the West Bank would not be as difficult, for military and security reasons.
On the Lebanese side, the Quintet did not manage to take any significant steps internally – it appears that the group members were never aligned, to begin with, and that no side is capable of communicating with its Lebanese counterparts or others, no matter how many excuses are given about the Hezbollah and Marada sides being ignored. Not to mention that Iran’s absence from any presidential initiative means that there is no foreseeable solution, as Iran is a crucial player given its hegemony over Lebanon’s internal politics.
It remains that the most important chapter in terms of foreign policy is the American presidential elections to be held in November, starring Joe Biden and Donald Trump yet again. The former will endeavor to convince all that his health is not declining and that he can still govern, while the latter will try to make up for his previous loss and revert to his initial policy of re-imposing sanctions against Iran and implementing the “Deal of the Century” with Israel. In that case, Biden’s victory would be in Iran’s interest, but it is powerless when it comes to his election – unless it succeeds at portraying him as having won the foreign policy battle, but this would be too costly, especially given that it had been escalating the conflict of late. What this means is that Iran will not let go of its Lebanese crony to please Biden, because it can simply sell its “power card” for a higher price. However, it could concede provided that the United States prolongs the truce between the two countries – but it can also gift the card to Trump as if to say that it does not deserve all the sanctions. In any case, Iran will not solve the Lebanese election problem anytime soon, let alone the region’s most pressing matters. Therefore, it would be safe to assume that the presidential election will have to wait until late 2024, maybe longer if events similar to the Al-Aqsa Flood operation were to occur, or if a military operation is begun in Lebanon. One should expect anything.
