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Technically there is no need to worry or panic, as the National Moderation Bloc’s initiative is backed by Arab support and endorsed by the Quintet Committee. While its members are expected to align with the prevailing Arab sentiment, the question remains about what the Shiite Amal-Hezbollah duo will decide, as it will undoubtedly shape the decision-making process.
The National Moderation Bloc’s initiative was launched in a meeting with leader of the Lebanese Forces Samir Geagea, the Renewal Bloc and sovereigntist MPs, and it will also probably meet with Hezbollah’s MPs. The initiative’s objective has become clear: different parliamentary blocs are joining hands to meet in Parliament’s main chamber to subsequently ask Speaker Nabih Berri for open sessions to elect a president. In essence, as previously mentioned, there is no cause for concern, as the initiative is backed by Arab support and endorsed by the Quintet Committee. But this initiative will materialize based on the decision of the Shiite duo; many scenarios can be put forward.
Although Nabih Berri’s feedback to the National Moderation Bloc was quite positive, his political advisor Ali Hassan Khalil didn’t welcome this initiative with open arms. In fact, he told the aforementioned bloc’s MPs, “Don’t bother meeting with Samir Geagea. He doesn’t want to elect a president.” Those same MPs were keen to reaffirm their moderate position and clarified to the people they met with that their position boils down to not backing any president who is not endorsed by Arab states, specifically referring to Sleiman Frangieh. In turn, they were met with this reply: The objection is mainly to any president who doesn’t have the support of Saudi Arabia, as the Kingdom will basically be one of the main sponsors of Lebanon’s economic and political solution.
Some opposition MPs will start examining the many facets of this initiative once they meet with members of the National Moderation Bloc. Therefore, several different interpretations may follow.
Some within the opposition have a realistic view of this initiative and see it as an attempt to meet the opposition’s call for open sessions where Hezbollah and its allies wouldn’t necessarily have the upper hand. However, others harbor concerns that the initiative might be a ruse that will potentially lead to the election of Sleiman Frangieh. All eyes are on Nabih Berri and his expected moves, especially if he plans to sabotage the initiative.
In this context, some observers expect Berri to maneuver his way out of this dilemma, in a way that would undermine both the initiative and its proponents. This would likely be tied to Hezbollah’s decision to elect no other presidential candidate than Sleiman Frangieh. Meanwhile, (few) others remain optimistic, as they believe that the Shiite party is not in a strong position and is therefore unlikely to prioritize electing a president who serves its own interests before any major developments occur in Lebanon and the region.
A prominent Arab ambassador happens to be one of these optimists. He believes that Hezbollah is leaning towards reaching a settlement, as indicated by its approval to extend General Joseph Aoun’s tenure as army commander-in-chief. According to the ambassador, Hezbollah’s desire aligns with Iran’s regional settlement strategy, which will likely translate into Lebanon through the election of a new president.
