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Lebanese media daily coverage, as well as the flurry of exchanges on social media platforms, have been unsurprisingly fixated, for over a month now, on the Gaza conflict and its military-security implications in Southern Lebanon, along the border with Israel. A volatile scenario has gripped this zone since October 7, marked by a grim tally of casualties, destruction and economic repercussions. But this is only the visible part of the iceberg, as developments on the field divert attention from a very serious issue that is bound to weigh heavily on Lebanon in the near or not-so-distant future.
Over the past five weeks, a deeply alarming fait accompli has been gradually unfolding in the South, especially in regions near the “Blue Line” (established by UNIFIL between Lebanon and Israel). If this trend persists and deepens, there is a significant risk of dragging the country, specifically the southern zone, into a new cycle of escalating violence, chronic instability and blatant encroachments on national sovereignty. This has the potential to once again plunge the Lebanese population into the nightmare of the 1970s, marked by the most severe incidents involving armed Palestinian organizations and the era of Fatehland. This was a direct outcome of the notorious 1969 Cairo Agreement, which held the country hostage and prompted the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to assume the role of a quasi-state, with all the destabilizing repercussions that it caused.
Today, the emerging fait accompli is insidiously based on the pretense of waging a war of attrition against the Israeli army to alleviate the intense pressure faced by Hamas in Gaza. But this is clearly not the case. Instead, this maneuver is nothing short of a coverup enabling Hezbollah to fundamentally alter the rules of engagement in Southern Lebanon and achieve an objective it has been actively pursuing for over a year: to curtail the authority of UNIFIL, restrict its freedom of movement, and simultaneously sideline the role of the Lebanese army in the deployment zone of the peacekeeping forces.
The pro-Iranian party went to great lengths in recent months to actively campaign for an amendment to the United Nations Security Council resolution aimed at renewing UNIFIL’s mandate. The objective of this amendment was to bypass the mission of the UN forces. But such efforts rendered dead in the water… The Gaza conflict has therefore handed Hezbollah the unexpected opportunity — supposedly in support of Hamas — to realize its longstanding “dream:” to undermine Resolution 1701 in order to expand its operational flexibility along the border with the Hebrew state.
To further complicate matters and exert influence, the Shiite group — the Iranian authority to be more precise as it is the ultimate decision-maker — actively promoted the emergence of fundamentalist Palestinian organizations in Southern Lebanon. Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) now operate with unbridled freedom across the southern region, launching rockets towards northern Israel as they see fit.
The serious existential threat looming over Lebanon can be summarized as a nightmarish and potentially explosive scenario: Hezbollah militants are openly advancing in the South, seizing control of the ground; Resolution 1701 is more brazenly violated than ever; the UN peacekeepers are being sidelined; the role of the Lebanese army is being circumvented; the resurgence of armed Palestinian presence is spiraling out of control outside the camps; Katyusha rockets are targeting Israel, followed by Israeli retaliation against Lebanese villages. All of this echoes the era of Fatehland, and the list goes on.
Undoubtedly, this doomsday scenario is still in its early stages, not yet firmly entrenched in reality. However, it’s not that difficult to foresee that once the fighting comes to an end, dismantling these militias will prove challenging. Hezbollah has effectively taken Southern Lebanon hostage and will unlikely release its grip that easily. In a dual role of arsonist and firefighter, it might even “provide its services” to control the armed Palestinian factions scattered among the villages. However, it, or rather Iran, will undoubtedly request a high price for its involvement in this regard.
The crucial questions to be raised at this point are about clarifying the blurred red lines in the ongoing clashes in the South. What will Israel’s stance be in such a context, and how will the situation on the ground (or in the air) unfold if no agreement is reached between the US and the Islamic Republic of Iran? So many uncertainties weigh heavily on the Lebanese population, emphasizing the pressing importance of both electing a President of the Republic and solidifying the Lebanese army, especially at the level of its command. However, this hinges on a genuine national awakening of those engaged in political maneuvers for the sake of satisfying their personal ego or promoting their petty and divisive political calculations.
