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On October 17, Israel faced another hard blow, just ten days into the offensive led by Hamas against the Hebrew State. The deadly bombing of Gaza’s Al-Ahli al-Arabi Baptist hospital in the northern part of the enclave has ignited global tensions and put Tel Aviv in a bad situation. It prompted it to accuse Hamas and later the Islamic Jihad of being responsible for the attack that resulted in 471 fatalities and 314 injuries, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
“As Israel enters a battle on both the media and military levels, it now faces the imperative of proving its innocence regarding any potential war crimes,” highlighted a retired general and professor of international humanitarian law who spoke anonymously.
In an interview with This Is Beirut, he expressed his conviction that the hospital airstrikes were carried out by Israeli forces.
Nevertheless, this theory lacks unanimous acceptance, both internationally, as evidenced by US President Joe Biden’s alignment with the Israeli narrative during his Wednesday 18 visit to Tel Aviv, and among military experts.
In the meantime, social media has become a battleground for disinformation, making it difficult to discern the truth.
It is worth mentioning that Al-Ahli al-Arabi Hospital has been targeted twice since October 7. The first attack was by an Israeli airstrike and occurred on October 14, resulting in four injuries among medical personnel, as conveyed on October 15 on the X platform by Canterbury Archbishop Justin Welby, head of the Anglican Church, which oversees the administration of Al-Ahli Hospital.
As for the second attack, there are contradictory scenarios, the most recent one suggesting the use of American military weapons, particularly the MK 84.
The MK 84 Theory
The Mark 84, manufactured in the United States, is a weapon that is intended to explode either before reaching its target or upon impact, dispersing thousands of fragments as desired. The system is widely recognized for its efficacy and cost-effectiveness, and it is frequently equipped with a system known as JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition), which was developed by American aerospace and aviation manufacturer Boeing. This system enhances precision by utilizing GPS guidance.
The MK 84 bomb has previously been used by the Israeli military in the 2021 Gaza Strip airstrikes and in the 2006 Lebanon war. Some experts believe that the Israeli military may have employed it in the hospital bombing. They presented two significant pieces of evidence to support their argument, namely the acoustic resemblance between the sound of a MK 84 bomb equipped with the JDAM system and the audio recorded during the October 17 strike, as well as the magnitude of the destruction inflicted.
They also noted that the Israeli military had equipped its F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft with MK 84 bombs, as documented in a 2000 Boeing report published on their website.
The Israeli Warning Theory
The day after the attack, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a statement indicating that the hospital was among the 20 facilities located in the northern Gaza Strip that had received evacuation orders from the Israeli military authorities. These statements were confirmed by Dr. Ghassan Abu Sitta, who is associated with the Doctors Without Borders organization and is currently operating in Gaza, and by Yousef Abou al-Rish, the Deputy Minister of Health in Gaza. During a press conference held after the attack, Abou al-Rish stated that “the Israeli army had twice warned the hospital director that the facility would be the target of airstrikes.”
The Crater Theory
To support their claims that this was a “missed” rocket fired by the Palestinian group Islamic Jihad, the Israelis cited the absence of the large craters that are typically caused by the aerial bombs currently used by their military against the Gaza Strip.
An American expert provided further insight when interviewed by This Is Beirut, suggesting that the small crater seen in the photos near the hospital’s parking lot is more consistent with the aftermath of a rocket launch than a substantial explosion. According to the expert, “The relatively intact state of the trees, lawns, buildings and vehicles, despite the extensive damage depicted in the photos circulated on social media,” supports this theory. “Given their undamaged condition, it strongly suggests that a rocket fired by Palestinian groups is the most likely explanation,” he noted.
According to the opposing theory, it is believed that the MK 84 bomb was set to the “air burst” mode. This would help explain why the resulting crater is not as extensive as one would expect from a ground-level detonation.
In response, the aforementioned expert clarifies that “a MK 84 bomb equipped with a DSU-33D/B proximity sensor (which means it features no direct mechanical link to the target) could certainly have detonated a few feet above the ground, resulting in a “non-standard” crater. However, if the overturned car observed in the images were a result of this explosion, it would undoubtedly have destroyed all the palm trees, which appear completely unharmed in the photos.”
The Shooting Maps and Recordings Theory
During a press conference held on October 18, the Israeli military spokesperson, Daniel Hagari, revealed that “at 18:59, a burst of approximately 10 missiles were fired by the Islamic Jihad from a cemetery. At the same time, at 18:59, reports surfaced of an explosion occurring at a hospital in Gaza.” Hagari went on to say that “according to our information, Hamas confirmed that the explosion resulted from an Islamic Jihad missile that had failed to hit its intended target.”
This information, according to Israelis, was derived from audio recordings capturing a conversation between two Hamas members discussing their role in the attack, as well as video footage recorded by “the Israeli Air Forces’ aerial system showcasing the area before and after the incident, in addition to live images from Al Jazeera and security cameras.”
Nevertheless, according to dissenting observers, rockets in the possession of Palestinian groups typically do not cause such extensive damage. Moreover, the cemetery referred to by Daniel Hagari is not situated at a distance of five kilometers from the hospital, the distance between the building and the region indicated in red on the map presented by the spokesperson (where the red point, according to him, is allegedly the location from which the Palestinian group was firing).
Contrary to the Israeli narrative, the same observers shared a photograph of a post on the X platform, which was deleted and subsequently replaced by a second post acknowledging an “error,” authored by Hananya Naftali, a former member of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s communication team.
In his post, Hananya Naftali discussed an Israeli strike that was deemed necessary to eradicate a Hamas terrorist base within the hospital.
