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The Hezbollah reservists have been given a firm directive to ensure the safety of their families within a period of 48 to 72 hours. When this timeframe expires, it is imperative that they mobilize and join forces with combatants in the southern region of the country, along a front line that extends over at least 40 kilometers, from the coastline to the disputed Shebaa Farms, situated between Lebanon and the Golan Heights border. According to recent reports, 5,000 permanent combatants have been on heightened alert in Syria since an offensive was launched by Hamas against Israel on October 7.
Six days have elapsed since the onset of the armed conflict between the pro-Iranian Palestinian group and Tel Aviv. During this time, both Hezbollah and the Hebrew State have been evaluating various tactical options in the context of limited confrontations in Southern Lebanon. As Paul-Georges Katsivelis, a specialist in Middle Eastern studies, explains, “Each side is attempting to evaluate its adversary’s resilience, scrutinize their responsiveness, capabilities and strategies, as well as the movements of their military units.”
Having acquired extensive military experience since the onset of the Syrian war in 2011, “Hezbollah is now preparing for a major confrontation with an unwavering commitment to nothing but victory,” as asserted by the expert in an interview with This Is Beirut. He claims that “the pro-Iranian group no longer needs a pretext to justify its military involvement, especially since Israel has formally declared a state of war.”
This implies that the declaration of hostilities between the two parties would naturally entail any engagement by Hezbollah. “However, such an engagement would require the green light from Iran. Tehran, along with Israel and the regional and international actors involved in this conflict, are currently attempting to assess the consequences of a war that has a regional and global scope,” explains Katsivelis.
He further added that “the realization of the initial step towards such an intervention poses no threat to either Israel or Hezbollah.” Katsivelis believes that Tel Aviv, which has received support from a considerable part of the international community, has primed public opinion and is poised at any moment to embark on its campaign towards Gaza. In response to this initiative, Hezbollah will mobilize its 30,000 reserve soldiers (whose numbers have not been confirmed) and its 100,000 combatants (as per the statements made by the party’s Secretary-General in 2021).
With these numbers in mind, Hezbollah ranks 46th in the official global list of States by total military personnel. Nonetheless, certain observers assert that the pro-Iranian party may not possess a total of 100,000 combatants but rather a total of approximately 20,000 regular members and 30,000 reservists. Over the years, Hezbollah has managed to acquire advanced military technology by improving its strike capabilities, missile quality and accuracy, as well as drone technology. Since 2006, it has also organized itself into cells, each of which consists of combatants entrusted with the mission of performing exceedingly precise and strictly confidential operations.
Katsivelis recalls that Israel had revealed that Hezbollah “had missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv, covering a distance of 100 to 150 kilometers.” It is noteworthy to mention that Ehud Barak, the former Israeli Defense Minister, has stated that Hezbollah possesses a stock of rockets and missiles, which has undoubtedly increased over time and is currently estimated at 75,000.
With no record of firing a single shot against Israel since the 2006 war, would Hezbollah be currently inclined to engage in a war with the Hebrew State?
