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In the wake of Hamas’s launch of Operation “Flood of Al-Aqsa” against Israel on Saturday, the Lebanese are keeping a close eye on unprecedented developments in the Gaza Strip, fearing that Lebanon could be caught up in the cycle of violence.
The exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel in Shebaa on Sunday morning reinforced these fears.
“There is certainly a risk of escalation in Lebanon,” says Fares Souaid, President of the National Council for the Lifting of the Iranian Occupation in Lebanon. However, he noted that Hezbollah and Iran have not yet deemed it necessary for Lebanon to enter the battle.
“The country is out in the open,” Souaid told This is Beirut, noting a big difference between the political situation in Lebanon today and that which prevailed in 2006.
“When Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers in July 2006, triggering a war with Israel, there was a President of the Republic, and above all, there was Fouad Siniora’s government, in which Hezbollah participated, which met every evening in the Serail and took adequate decisions,” recalls the former MP.
In this context, he points out that it was the Siniora government that coordinated with the international parties to facilitate the vote on UN Resolution 1701 which led to the cessation of hostilities after more than a month of a destructive war.
“Today, the country is out in the open, without a president, without a real government, and the only party that decides Lebanon’s fate is Hezbollah, which is among those who are in Iran’s lap in the region,” explains Souaid, who calls on politicians, civil society and the media “to create an unfavorable climate for any adventure that Hezbollah or Iran might be about to launch from Lebanon.”
Regional dialogue table
For Souaid, the region is currently at a major turning point, and each country is trying to refine its position.
“Israel has begun to improve its relations with the Arab world, and recently established diplomatic relations with Morocco and the United Arab Emirates,” he contends, adding, “Israel continues to negotiate, through the United States, with Saudi Arabia, the most important Arab and Muslim country in the region. It is clear that a Saudi-Israeli agreement will change all the dimensions.”
According to the former Secretary General of March 14, “Iran is trying to secure a place at this regional dialogue table, especially as Teheran is in a weak position, due to internal protest movements and economic sanctions.”
The place at this table is still out of Iran’s reach, “even though it has got its hands on four Arab countries, namely Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and intervenes on the Palestinian level,” according to Souaid.
“It (Iran) has used all the means at its disposal: it has contributed to the delimitation of the maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel through Hezbollah, it has presented itself as the guarantor of offshore drilling in block 9, it has tried to keep the main card in its hands at the level of the presidency of the Republic, it keeps Bashar el-Assad at the head of Syria, it is present in Iraq, Yemen, Jenin and Ain el-Helweh, but all of this has not been sufficient,” Souaid added.
The Gaza challenge
That’s why what is happening in Gaza is a major issue for Iran. “Hamas is not a pro-Iranian organization, but Tehran has influence over the movement, and any action taken by Hamas can lead to an improvement in Iran’s negotiating conditions,” emphasizes Souaid.
In his view, “the heavy losses inflicted by Hamas on Israel mean that Hezbollah and Iran have not yet considered it necessary to involve Lebanon in the battle, but Hezbollah remains on the lookout.”
According to Souaid, the extreme escalation of violence between Israel and Hamas will result in a resolution similar to 1701, voted by the UN Security Council.” Hamas will then be the champion of diplomatic victory and will establish itself as the sole Palestinian interlocutor, replacing the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which will emerge weakened from the battle,” predicts the former Jbeil MP. For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will also emerge stronger, having resorted to great violence.
As for Iran, according to him, it will also benefit from the situation as it “will have improved its negotiating conditions with the United States.”
