Listen to the article
Amos Hochstein, senior advisor to President Joe Biden, arrived in Beirut on Wednesday ahead of the visit of French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, which is scheduled for September 17.
The US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, is said to have conveyed to a senior official that the US government has selected Hochstein for a mission of utmost “sensitivity and complexity.” This mission involves the 13 disputed points along the land borders between Lebanon and Israel. Hochstein is also tasked with successfully finalizing this dossier, mirroring his previous accomplishment of achieving the maritime agreement between Lebanon and Israel, which received the endorsement of Hezbollah.
According to credible sources, Hochstein is diligently pursuing a comprehensive settlement of the southern Lebanese border issue. “He has already successfully addressed 7 out of the 13 contentious points, largely facilitated through the intervention of the UNIFIL command.”
Hochstein is striving to finalize the border dossier, as highlighted by a former UN official who emphasized that “no state can exist without delineated and internationally recognized borders. The Lebanese borders are neither demarcated nor final, especially in the northeastern region bordering Syria.”
Furthermore, a former minister has disclosed the existence of a maritime border dispute between Lebanon and Syria concerning the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). After recognizing that Syria had encroached upon sections of blocks 1 and 2 belonging to Lebanon, the latter did not object to the Syrian maps submitted to the United Nations regarding the northern boundaries of the Exclusive Economic Zone. Despite this discovery, the Lebanese authorities remained reluctant to take any action or contest the Syrian maps.
Hochstein’s mission aligns with the recurring information from the United Nations, indicating that the issue of the Lebanese borders will be seriously addressed, alongside the renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate and the commencement of gas drilling in Block 9 in southern Lebanon. This follows the implementation of a maritime agreement between Lebanon and Israel, which aims to ensure stability in the region. This agreement covers an oil and gas zone that extends from Egypt to Greece and is dependent on international stability.
As per reliable sources, there is a lack of precise information regarding the border dossier. However, several scenarios are being deliberated to select one.
The question is whether Hochstein’s mission will prevail over Le Drian’s or whether they will form a rescue plan for Lebanon in accordance with the roadmap being developed by the five member states of the Paris Group (USA, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar). According to a well-informed former minister, the president will be responsible for its implementation, in which case the president’s profile would be quite secondary.
No diplomat underestimates the local complications, the escalation stances of local parties, their claims, or their demands. These factors may exacerbate the situation and impede Le Drian and Hochstein’s missions in the absence of a local and regional agreement.
Meanwhile, the focus remains on Le Drian’s mission and its “surprises.”
According to the same sources, the plan for his third visit has now taken shape. Le Drian is scheduled to land in Beirut on September 17, and he will meet with Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri as a start. Subsequently, he will initiate a series of meetings at the Residence des Pins with various political factions to discuss their answers, their stances, and how they imagine overcoming the crisis. He will then formulate a working document and outline a course of action after exclusive one-on-one meetings based on the answers he receives.
The camp opposed to the Hezbollah-led side has previously expressed reluctance to engage in any dialogue sessions, favoring a more direct approach. Their preference leans toward holding open election sessions after the conclusion of bilateral meetings. This inclination arises from the fact that both sides have their presidential candidates: Jihad Azour for the opposition and Sleiman Frangieh for the Shiite Duo—Amal and Hezbollah. The eventual outcome appears to be electing either candidate or a third consensus candidate.
Hezbollah is expected to expedite the development of an agreement with the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, before Le Drian’s arrival. That would strengthen Frangieh’s chances under a political agreement that would benefit Bassil during the upcoming term.
Should Bassil choose to endorse Frangieh, as per the sources, such a decision could potentially prompt the Progressive Socialist Party to follow suit after receiving the backing of the Free Patriotic Movement.
As per prominent parliamentary circles, there are a multitude of possibilities, given the international pressure to swiftly elect a president in the forthcoming weeks. Considering the dire state of the country on political, economic, financial, and social levels, the situation in Lebanon can no longer tolerate the persistent vacancy.
A former minister asserted that the missions undertaken by Hochstein and Le Drian hold immense significance. The question lies in whether these endeavors will lead to a regional agreement or a global resolution, or if the region will be pushed into further tensions and confrontations.
