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Given the dynamically shifting regional context and the assertive stances taken by local parties, the imminent return of French Presidential Envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian to Lebanon in September adds an intriguing layer of suspense.
In the midst of heightened tensions, Le Drian is preparing for his return to Lebanon. Alongside the written document—the famous two questions regarding the presidential election—addressed to the parliamentary blocs, the local focus remains distinctly honed, in light of Le Drian’s forthcoming visit, on the ongoing negotiations between Hezbollah and Gebran Bassil, the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement. As a reminder, Bassil has presented a series of claims to the pro-Iranian party to justify to the public his potential return in cahoots with Tehran’s ally. One of these assertions pertains to a comprehensive proposal for the decentralization of administrative and financial functions. According to a well-informed source, Nabih Berry, the leader of the Amal movement and head of the legislative body, has chosen to dismiss Bassil’s claims, particularly those concerning extensive decentralization.
As we await the outcome of the ongoing discussions between Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement (CPL), the primary focus of local news has shifted to a document that was dispatched by the French presidential envoy to the parliamentarians. In this document, Le Drian is requesting comprehensive written answers from MPs regarding the two subsequent questions: in summary, what characteristics ought to define the political profile of the upcoming President of the Republic? And what should be on his agenda?
The opposition argues that these questions are redundant, as the answers are already contained within the Doha Declaration, which was adopted by the five countries participating in the Paris meeting (the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar) to synchronize their efforts towards resolving the crisis. According to opposition sources, the answers in question are also included in the New York Declaration of September, which was adopted by Washington, Paris and Riyadh, regarding the president’s profile and the foundations for settling the crisis.
Nonetheless, as per diplomatic sources, Le Drian intends to obtain a written document from the aforementioned parties to prevent a recurrence of the scenario that unfolded with President Emmanuel Macron during the 2020 meeting at the Residence des Pins after the Beirut port explosion. On that occasion, the French president was confronted with a situation where the March 8 alliance forces failed to fulfill their verbal commitment to establish a non-partisan government and enact a roadmap and a rescue plan for the country.
Conversely, visitors to Ain el-Tineh (the residence of the Parliament Speaker) have conveyed Nabih Berri’s dissatisfaction with Le Drian’s approach. According to political sources close to the Shiite party, Hezbollah has not publicly reacted; however, it has no intention of providing a written answer.
Nevertheless, despite the opposition’s discontent, its MPs have publicly taken a unified stance, which they will later communicate to the French embassy. However, the Free Patriotic Movement affirms that Gebran Bassil was the first to study this subject. As for the Forces of Change and the independents, they will submit their answers and participate in the bilateral dialogue. Nevertheless, they reject the idea of engaging in a collective dialogue with Hezbollah, just like the opposition which requires open sessions to elect a president. According to them, holding a dialogue before the election would be pointless.
In any case, it is crucial to underscore that diplomatic sources assert that, despite Iran’s recent rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, there is a looming unfolding, especially in Lebanon, driven by pro-Iranian militias to exert greater pressure. Iran is actually trying to take advantage of this in its negotiations with both the United States and Saudi Arabia.
In this particular context, the escalating pattern of security disturbances that are currently occurring in Lebanon, encompassing the Ain Ebel crime, the Kahaleh incident, the Hay el-Selloum incident, the double homicide in Kornet el-Sawda, the upheavals in Ain el-Helweh, and other incidents across multiple regions, indicates a heightened trend towards escalation. Everything is happening as the region awaits a comprehensive solution that could potentially break the stalemate of the presidential election.
