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No specific date has been set for the presidential election in Lebanon as rival factions remain profoundly divided and unable to reach a consensus. Meanwhile, the international community finds itself absorbed with more pressing global matters. “Given the persistent failure of political forces in Lebanon to find common ground and elect a president, how can we help when our efforts are not reciprocated?” a high-ranking Western official asked.
Local forces continue to obstruct the election process, all blaming each other for the deadlock. Faced with these realities, a former official predicts that the vacancy will likely persist until next spring, citing information that the international community is focused on addressing its own problems and is mainly concerned with maintaining a certain stability and preventing the collapse of Lebanon.
Another former official recalled a statement by US Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea in which she asserted that “despite some beliefs, the United States will not abandon Lebanon, as proven by the presence of their biggest embassy in the region; however, they cannot stand in for the Lebanese people in choosing their president.”
Shea also emphasized that her country will not allow Lebanon to collapse. The US supports both the military and security institutions in their roles to maintain stability, while also providing assistance to the Lebanese people through financial institutions and non-governmental organizations. This dual approach aims to ensure the well-being of the nation amid challenging circumstances.
As the presidential election appears to be on hold for the time being, local forces are actively strengthening their positions in anticipation of the forthcoming phase of negotiation. Hezbollah is intensifying escalations on the Blue Line in a bid to consolidate its influence in south Lebanon and secure a meaningful role in future negotiations for resolving the contentious issue of territorial borders. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri is staunchly pushing for consensus through dialogue as a key prerequisite for electing a president. On their part, opposition parties insist on the implementation of the electoral process according to the Constitution, while the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) is attempting to create suitable conditions for its leader, Gebran Bassil, to emerge as an unavoidable card to face the obstructionist axis of Hezbollah and its allies. This is a crucial issue for the Christians, as they need to properly manage the challenges arising from the French initiative. French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed former Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian as a special envoy to lead this mission.
Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has, in the meantime, set aside his conditions for constitutional amendments, narrowing them down to an unyielding support of Sleiman Frangieh, whom the Shiite party believes is the only person who can safeguard their demands. On the other hand, the Lebanese Forces and other opposition parties have been rejecting dialogue and calling for a sovereign president to save the country, as stipulated in the US-French-Saudi communiqué issued at the end of their New York meeting in September 2022.
Some sources contend that placing the Lebanese dossier on hold comes hand in hand with highly significant regional developments following the Beijing agreement. These include the Sunni-Shiite reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a new Middle East order, and the settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on the basis of a two-state solution.
Escalations on the southern border of Lebanon, surging violence in Jenin and the West Bank, and turmoil inside Israel against Benjamin Netanyahu’s government would set the stage for an eventual settlement. The recent “secret” visit to Israel by US President Joe Biden’s Special Presidential Coordinator for Global Infrastructure and Energy Security Amos Hochstein and the Israeli President’s visit to Washington both aimed to advance a series of issues ranging from nuclear matters to a final settlement on the issue of territorial borders between Lebanon and Israel, as Total starts its drilling operations in Block 9.
Many sources have claimed that the Biden administration is “displeased” with Netanyahu’s government, which is accused of corruption, extremism, and interference in judicial affairs, and Hochstein was dispatched to the region to deal with potentially destabilizing issues.
Oman has emerged as a focal point for a series of meetings aimed at putting regional files in order. The meetings between Iran and the US, Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Riyadh and Washington covered regional affairs including the nuclear dossier and the implementation of the Beijing agreement, which is intended to curtail Iran’s regional interferences and maintain stability.
Consequently, the region is bound to witness positive developments. Numerous visits by American officials are expected to expedite the stages of the settlement. According to a former Lebanese official, efforts are underway to gear up for the last stretch of the normalization phase and bring an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on Saudi King Abdullah’s initiative outlined during the 2002 Beirut Arab Summit. The initiative is expected to be submitted to the United Nations General Assembly in September.
Israel has anticipated these developments by annexing more Palestinian lands in order to strengthen its position in future negotiations. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has, for the first time in a long while, called for the resuming of peace talks with Israel. These were disrupted in 2014. However, a diplomatic source maintained that Joe Biden is seeking to sideline Netanyahu from power in order to pave the way for the comeback of moderates with whom a settlement could be reached.
Is Hezbollah’s escalation in the south linked to these developments? Could it be an attempt to disrupt stability and bolster the party’s position in negotiations?
Diplomatic sources believe that a solution is possible if Israel withdraws from the northern part of the disputed village of Ghajar, and Hezbollah removes the tents it put up on the Blue Line. The settlement should resolve the dispute over six border spots and consolidate control of the border with Syria to prevent smuggling and the channeling of weapons into Lebanon, a condition, among others, to maintain Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power.
Finally, if a president is elected at the beginning of the year as intended, unless unforeseen international events require a change in plans, the process of reforms will be initiated, and the Taif Agreement will be implemented. In fact, what is required is not dialogue, but rather the implementation of the Taif Accord and existing legislation. As such, the new president would be the result of a long-awaited comprehensive settlement.
