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In late June 2006, the country’s political leaders and influential figures gathered at the Place de l’Etoile for a national dialogue conference presided over by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri. Following the discussions, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah took the floor and highlighted the following key points: As the summer season draws near, it is imperative that we strive to preserve tranquility in the South and refrain from any acts of provocation (against Israel). Two weeks later, on July 12, 2006, Hezbollah’s militia initiated a series of rocket attacks on Israeli territory and carried out a cross-border operation to abduct Israeli soldiers. This provocative act ignited a devastating 33-day-long war, resulting in nearly 1,500 Lebanese fatalities and damages estimated at several billions of dollars. It was subsequently disclosed that Qassem Soleimani, the former top security official of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (Pasdaran), personally conducted the operations during the July 2006 war.
This 33-day conflict gave rise to two strategic situations: Firstly, it torpedoed the State rebuilding process initiated by the March 14 coalition in pursuit of sovereignty (a process that had made significant progress). Secondly, it consolidated the regional role of the pro-Iranian party, which achieved the remarkable feat of outlining its survival and eluding complete annihilation by the Israeli army as a “divine victory.” It was a close call… This second outcome sheds light on Qassem Soleimani’s direct involvement in the aforementioned military operations.
In the wake of the extensive series of political assassinations that plagued the country in 2005, the July 2006 war emerged as one of the most pivotal events. Alongside the invasion of Beirut on May 7, 2008, it dealt a profound and potentially fatal blow to the Libanist vision of the March 14 coalition. In the aftermath of the Cedar Revolution, which was launched in the wake of the assassination of Rafic Hariri on February 14, 2005, a widespread, cross-communal popular movement arose, coinciding with the Syrian forces’ withdrawal, as it endorsed the project centered around the restoration of sovereignty, the rehabilitation of the State and the establishment of a climate of lasting stability in the country. However, the “State-building project” advocated by the March 14 coalition was fundamentally at odds with the strategic goals of Hezbollah. Such goals were closely aligned with the regional aspirations of the Iranian godfather. Therefore, it was imperative for Tehran’s ally to undermine the fledgling sovereigntist momentum before it could solidify and gain strength.
The July 2006 war thus dealt an initial and crucial blow to the March 14 project. This was followed by numerous other significant events, including the prolonged occupation of the city center in 2006, the incidents that occurred on May 7 in both Beirut and Moukhtara, the deliberate undermining of constitutional deadlines, the breach of the terms outlined in the 2008 Doha Agreement, the downfall of Saad Hariri’s government, the relentless campaigns waged against Saudi Arabia and the major Gulf countries and the systematic strategy of dismantling the State and sapping critical country sectors, such as the banking sector, among others. These carefully orchestrated actions and initiatives have been carried out systematically with the aim of eroding the very foundations of the State-building project.
In order to preserve and enhance its regional role in service of the pasdaran, Hezbollah must continuously foster a belligerent climate and a war-like atmosphere. Chronic instability is not only vital for the party’s survival but also lies at the heart of its core business. Without instability, the Shiite party would be unable to sustain and expand. For the party, prosperity and stability would be a fatal element, jeopardizing its very existence. As a consequence, it comes as no surprise that following the Iranian-Saudi agreement in Beijing, Hezbollah suddenly decided to escalate tensions in the regions of Shebaa Farms, Kfarshouba Hills and the town of Ghajar, where complete calm and tranquility have prevailed for over 23 years. Is the Beijing agreement aimed at establishing stability in the region? Assuming this is the case, it is vital for Hezbollah to maintain this focal point of tension. Will the Lebanese population, once again pay the steep price despite the ongoing general collapse? No one seems to really care… The major concern is to safeguard the strategic interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as per the desiderata of Wilayat al-Faqih …
