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Ahead of his return to Lebanon for a second round of talks to help end the presidential deadlock, French special envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian briefed French President Emmanuel Macron on the outcome of his three-day visit last week. They agreed that Le Drian would prepare a detailed report of the discussions he had with Lebanese politicians and submit it to Macron within days. The report will then be discussed with the Elysée and Quai d’Orsay teams to determine two things: the path of Le Drian’s next mission and the possibility of formulating an initiative or new ideas related to solving Lebanon’s presidential crisis.
Sources indicate that the main conclusion reached by the French emissary is the inability to elect a president given the current balance of power within parliament. It is nearly impossible to shift this balance in favor of any particular party, considering the current distribution of power. As a result, no party would be able to gather 86 MPs in the plenary session and wrap up the electoral process with 65 votes in the second round.
The second conclusion that Le Drian reached is that Hezbollah is adamant on endorsing Marada Party leader Sleiman Frangieh as the sole candidate for the presidency of the republic. Furthermore, the pro-Iranian camp, including Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s Amal Movement, will continue to work toward Frangieh’s accession to Baabda’s Presidential Palace, and no electoral session will be held until Frangieh’s election is guaranteed.
Diplomatic sources asserted that the outcome of his visit discourages Le Drian from proceeding any further in his mission. However, despite everything, he will pursue what he has started, hoping to convince the Moumana’a (pro-Iran axis) that under the ongoing circumstances, it will be almost impossible for their candidate to win the presidential election. As such, waiting for the situation to change and for a shift of power to occur might take a while and might not happen in the foreseeable future. Consequently, Lebanon will be left to fend for itself, without any Arab or international assistance, which will in turn lead to further deterioration and disintegration of essential institutions such as the Central Bank and the Lebanese Army.
The same sources indicated that the French are still discussing the idea of initiating a new dialogue with the Islamic Republic of Iran in an attempt to pressure Hezbollah to reconsider its support for Frangieh. But what is preventing the French from taking this step is their belief that Tehran will not play this role. In fact, not only is Tehran in line with Hezbollah, but it also dictates its political approach.
The diplomatic sources confirmed that all the information will be conveyed to the countries that participated in the Paris summit on the Lebanese crisis (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, and the US) in the hope that they can facilitate a breakthrough that would restore the state authority in the Country of the Cedars and help it cope with significant challenges and upcoming obligations. This includes the election of a president, followed by the formation of an effective government, key appointments, and an agreement with the International Monetary Fund. It also encompasses Lebanon’s potential entry into the circle of oil-producing countries following the first commercial uncovering in Block 9, not to mention the refugees’ issue. All of these goals will remain unattainable as long as Hezbollah maintains its stance regarding the presidency.
