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Despite Hezbollah’s apparent “relief” regarding the content of the final declaration of the Arab summit in Jeddah, given the absence of any mention holding Iran and Hezbollah responsible for destabilizing the region, as was the case in previous Arab summit declarations, the party decided, 48 hours after the conclusion of the Jeddah summit, to conduct military maneuvers in Mleeta (east of Sidon) in southern Lebanon.
According to Mohamed Afif, Hezbollah’s spokesperson, these were “military maneuvers conducted in one of Hezbollah’s camps in the south and they were limited in nature, location, duration, and scope.” He explained that they were exclusively performed in the presence of journalists on the occasion of Liberation and Resistance Day.
Afif further stated that “the party’s maneuvers are aimed at showcasing Hezbollah’s capabilities and conveying a message to the enemy to be prepared for any contingency.”
However, some within the opposition pointed out that this initiative is “a provocation to the exhausted Lebanese people, who are no longer able to bear the consequences of any Hezbollah adventure, especially considering that Arab countries and the international community insist on the need to preserve calm and respect UN Resolution 1701.”
Hezbollah’s show of force comes in direct response to Clause 6 of the Jeddah declaration, which rejects “the formation of armed groups and militias outside of the framework of the state’s institutions.” Based on reliable sources, Hezbollah’s statement regarding its military maneuvers is seen as an Iranian message. By conducting these maneuvers, Hezbollah wanted to prove that it is not concerned with the content of Clause 6 of the Jeddah declaration and instead adheres to a previous Arab decision that emphasizes “the distinction between resistance and armed militias,” as highlighted by the Arab summit in Algiers.
Therefore, Hezbollah is seeking to establish its role and weapons both locally and regionally.
Of note, during discussions related to the final Jeddah declaration, participants rejected the aforementioned distinction and insisted that weapons should be solely controlled by the state. Consequently, the clause recognizing “Lebanon’s right to resistance in order to liberate its territory” was missing.
Hezbollah emphasizes its role in preserving and enforcing the agreements concluded during the delimitation of maritime borders with Israel. In this context, the party asserts that if the agreement is violated, it would significantly disrupt stability and the prevalent tranquility. The maneuvers, which occurred prior to the commencement of drilling activities and the arrival of the drilling rig at Block 9, convey a message to international partners supporting the agreement with the aim of reminding them of the significance of complying with its terms and acknowledging Hezbollah’s role as a reliable security provider, according to sources close to the pro-Iran faction.
“Furthermore, these maneuvers serve as a message to the future president, as they urge him to acknowledge the role and legitimacy of Hezbollah’s weapons in liberating Lebanon’s remaining occupied territories.”
It is unclear whether these maneuvers will accelerate or, conversely, delay the presidential election, given the recent judicial developments in Paris regarding the governor of the central bank. The involvement of Sleiman Frangieh or the potential for a vacancy reminiscent of the 1988 American equation, Mikhail Daher or chaos, could contribute to the uncertainty.
Given the recent developments in the wake of the Arab Summit in Jeddah, questions arise about France’s specific role in ensuring the election of a new president and resolving the current crisis given that Washington has mandated it to do so until further notice. The response of the Paris Group of Five (USA, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar) to Hezbollah’s position and its maneuvers remains to be seen amid questions about whether or not Paris will persuade Patriarch Bechara al-Rai and Gebran Bassil (currently in France), as well as Christian leaders and opposition forces of Frangieh’s election. Additionnally, whether or not these maneuvers are likely to enhance foreign players’ support for Frangieh is yet to to be revealed.
According to diplomatic sources, Lebanon failed to include in the draft of the Jeddah summit final declaration specific wordings pertaining to Lebanon. It also failed, according to the same sources, to adopt the final clause of the Algiers summit, which states that “it is necessary to distinguish between terrorism and resistance against occupation, which is a right recognized by international conventions, and to demand the liberation of the Chebaa Farms, the Kfarchouba Hills, and the Lebanese part of the town of Ghajar, as well as the right to resist any aggression through legitimate means.”
But instead of including a clause that adopts Hezbollah’s rhetoric, the final declaration of Jeddah emphasized “Lebanon’s neutrality in the face of conflicts, rejection of axis politics, the continuation of the Paris Group of Five’s sponsorship, and the active role of Saudi Arabia in the presidential election deadline.”
In response to this situation, Hezbollah sought to “send messages in all directions to affirm its role and justify its weapons, framing them within the context of territory liberation,” according to sources from the pro-Iranian party.
The political interpretation of the evolving Saudi-Iranian relations following the Beijing agreement, which envisions a détente between the two parties in their influence zones, suggests that Hezbollah’s attachment to its weapons may contradict the essence of the recent visit by Iranian Foreign Minister Hassan Amir Abdollahian to Beirut. The Iranian diplomat explicitly called for consensus on the presidential election. Furthermore, his visit to the border village of Maroun al-Ras, where he made it a point to plant an olive tree, conveys a clear signal to the Israelis, expressing his country’s willingness to avoid escalation and any confrontation with Hezbollah.
The upcoming period will likely unveil the intentions and orientations of all involved parties in the region. The Jeddah Summit, also known as the Salman Summit, marks the beginning of a new phase in regional relations, guided by a Saudi-led strategy.
