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Two men are the focus of attention during the Arab League summit in Jeddah: the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad; two men whose political approaches are quite convergent. Saudi Arabia is trying to bring Syria back into the Arab fold, offering many enticing incentives to Damascus. However, if President Assad does not show goodwill by honoring numerous political and security commitments, nothing will happen. In this regard, it is worth noting that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have taken a major step toward the Syrian regime.
The importance of this summit, which aims at bringing Arabs together, is therefore reinforced by the fact that Syria is back in the Arab League. However, although not all member countries have approved this reinstatement, the issue has not caused tension among Arab countries or the Gulf states. This is evidenced by the fact that the Emir of Qatar, whose relations with Syria remain strained, is also present at the summit, which is attended by the Syrian president. The presence of the Emir of Qatar could be based on guarantees related to the way Assad will conduct himself at the summit.
Along with the situation in Syria, normalization with the Iranians will not be easy, despite the agreement reached between Riyadh and Tehran. The complex issues ranging from Yemen to Syria, and their repercussions, will be difficult to resolve and overcome. The current phase is a test for the Iranians. The statements which will be made at the Jeddah summit will take this test into account so that the Iranians do not imagine that they have settled their differences with the Arabs and that the opposition to Iranian interference, expressed at previous summits, is now overcome.
In this context, Lebanon’s eyes remain fixed on the summit and its outcome. Indeed, any development in the Syrian and Iranian files will inevitably have repercussions on Lebanon, especially regarding the relationship with the Syrian regime. Lebanon hopes that the Arabs will succeed in finding a political solution to the Syrian crisis that would first establish political stability and security, and that would include two components from which Lebanon would benefit. The first is the return of Syrian refugees to their country of origin, and the second is the control and demarcation of borders which would allow the Lebanese state to exercise its sovereignty over its entire territory. This will result in a decline in Iranian influence for the benefit of the Arabs.
Lebanon’s expectations of the Arab summit are legitimate and justified. However, the Arabs know that the Lebanese state is in total decay, that the presidency of the Republic is vacant, and that the government is only dealing with current affairs. Moreover, they blame the Lebanese leaders for their irresponsible management of this situation. Nevertheless, if the Arabs, Iranians, and Syrians were to reach an agreement, it could encourage Hezbollah to give up trying to impose a president on the Lebanese people.
