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190 days of presidential vacuum, 354 days without an effective government, a Parliament that does not convene, a judiciary system in shambles… No Lebanese institution is functioning as a President is still not elected and constitutional mechanisms are at a standstill.
Moreover, regional dynamics are shifting: Saudi Arabia and Iran reestablished diplomatic relations, Iran approaches the status of a threshold country, Arab countries will reintegrate Syria into the Arab League in a decisive Summit to be held in Riyadh in 10 days, Yemen is stabilizing, all the while Lebanon remains mired in political and economic crises.
Two main camps have been clashing since the fall, even before Michel Aoun’s departure from the presidential palace. On one hand, the sovereignists are currently supporting Michel Mouawad and rejecting any pro-Iranian candidate. On the other hand, Hezbollah and its allies cling to their favored candidate, Sleiman Frangieh. Various local and international initiatives have tried to end the presidential deadlock, but all in vain. Calls for dialogue have been made and rejected, particularly by the Lebanese Forces, who refuse to allow the Parliament to be bypassed by a dialogue session in which Hezbollah would impose its will under the threat of its militia weapons.
However, the regional situation seems to be shifting. All Lebanese parties are aware that Saudi assistance is necessary, even essential, to rescue the country. Electing a President aligned with the pro-Iranian faction would send the wrong message. Even Hezbollah recognizes this fact. Despite its public insistence on supporting Sleiman Frangieh, the calls for consensus and dialogue since the beginning of the presidential campaign as well as the change in tone in the speeches of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah towards Saudi Arabia demonstrate a certain willingness to negotiate.
The first round of this presidential election appears to be coming to an end. Michel Moawad is no longer considered the main candidate while Sleiman Frangieh tries, unsuccessfully, to remain relevant. According to information obtained by This is Beirut, a part of Hezbollah’s political leadership is reconsidering its strategy regarding the presidential race. For the second round, which has been in preparation for several months, many figures are emerging. The names of Joseph Aoun, Lebanese Army Commander-in-Chief, Jihad Azour, Director of the Middle East department at the IMF, Salah Honein, former MP and constitutionalist, and Neemat Frem, MP and businessman, are increasingly circulating but have yet to gain traction.
Four initiatives are currently underway to try to resolve the stalemate: those of Elias Bou Saab, Deputy Speaker, Ghassan Skaff, MP, Walid Boukhari, Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, and a Qatari delegation, separately visiting the main political formations and spiritual leaders. Their goal? To reach a consensus on a new President or, at least, unite the opposition behind a single candidate.
The road ahead seems long, but time is pressing. It is essential to catch up with the moving Arab world and address the Lebanon’s various structural problems in order to halt its collapse and, above all, restart the nation’s institutions. This is Beirut learned from an Arab League’s insider that the statement which will be released at the end of Riyadh’s Summit will include a mandate to the Saudi Kingdom for handling the Lebanese presidential file.
Furthermore, the end of Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh’s term on July 31st also looms as a threat. The Central Bank cannot be without a Governor during such a critical period, where Lebanon’s survival is at stake. It urgently needs a successor, especially in light of the Shiite Vice-Governor’s refusal to assume interim functions. To achieve this, a new team must be installed to take on the executive responsibilities. Otherwise, it will be yet another empty deadlocked institution. The state’s deconstruction, which began under ex-President Michel Aoun, would follow its course until the Lebanon we hope to preserve disappears completely.
