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Submerged by the Gaza war, we forgot our own revolution, born four years ago. This is an opportunity to revisit a less explored aspect – the economic weapon.
There are several ways to quell a revolution, tried and tested throughout history. And there must certainly be somewhere a “Revolution Breaker Guide for Dummies.”
Without delving into world history, we can broadly categorize three methods for countering revolutions. First is the primary physical violence (arrests, beatings, assassinations) as recently seen in Iran. Second is “diversion,” creating events that divert the attention of the “revolutionaries.” And finally, there’s the economic weapon aimed at impoverishing the activists.
In Lebanon, all three methods were used depending on the situation. In 2005, after the March 14 uprising, the first two were abundantly applied. There were numerous political assassinations, then a war (in 2006), then an occupation of downtown Beirut, then an invasion of West Beirut, and finally a croony placed at the helm of the state. Consequently, through violence and diversions, the “Cedar Revolution” unraveled, even though its spirit occasionally surfaces in a few die-hard individuals.
The revolution of October 17, 2019 faced a different fate. The third method was favoured: impoverishing the population. I won’t say that the events that unfolded followed a well-thought-out conspiracy – that would be attributing to the people in power an IQ beyond their capacity.
I would rather say that each decision was made as the situation developed, leading in the same direction. This direction was to deprive people of their means of subsistence. The idea was that the destitute wouldn’t think much about the ideals that had motivated them but would only seek to provide a decent life for their families. Several occurrences illustrate this bleak approach.
- First, the Lebanese Pound was allowed to plummet toward the abyss, slowly but inexorably. Could it have been handled differently? Certainly. Available data showed that the Banque du Liban (BDL) had enough dollar reserves to buy back Lebanese Pounds in circulation if their holders wanted to exchange them for dollars. But politicians had different plans for these reserves.
- Regarding the politicians in power, who were they? A conglomerate of Hezbollahies, allies and satellites. And a government tailored for them, starting from January 2020, with a mediocre leader at its helm. In this regard, he exceeded expectations – more than they ever hoped for – so that they had to dismiss him eight months later, along with his similarly mediocre team. There was not a single one among them worth saving.
- Simultaneously with the currency’s fall, everything was done to make it impossible for people to access their bank deposits. A capital control law and another for loan repayments, if implemented early in the crisis, would have provided depositors with a monthly amount sufficient for a decent living in the absence of other income. There was sufficient liquidity in the banking system in the fall of 2019.
- In addition, let’s strip the central bank of its liquidity through mafia-style subsidies, of which the Minister of Economy at the time, another mediocre figure, was very proud. All that money went up in smoke instead of supporting households. Households were thrilled when they found a can of Nido milk powder at the supermarket or when they managed to buy 20 liters of gasoline after a night’s wait. It reminded us of the endless queues in the USSR, with Muscovites standing in line for a pack of butter – an old trick to divert the population’s focus.
- In the meantime, a debt default on external debt deprived the country of any foreign currency inflow, choking all economic players for years to come.
- COVID-19 came just in time to complete the job. While other countries kept an eye on the pillars of production even during lockdown, the government of Diab seized the opportunity to kill what remains of the economy, and to reap the dividends from the millions of PCR tests.
These episodes, and others, shattered the revolution and left people wondering about its usefulness. It’s understandable. However, we don’t judge a revolution by its success or failure. We measure it by the fundamental question: was it just or not?
