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3. The World Tired of Lebanon’s Stalling: A Possible Return to Syrian Influence?

The Lebanese file no longer provides meaningful political leverage for the countries involved. Neither U.S. President Donald Trump nor French President Emmanuel Macron has been able to exert decisive influence.
A Western diplomatic source described the situation as exhausting and frustrating, noting that Lebanese officials often tell foreign counterparts what they want to hear, however, they either act in contradiction or fail to act at all.

The same source revealed that international and Arab officials are increasingly raising the possibility of having Syria reassert its influence in Lebanon. Some suggest that under its new leadership, Syria could take charge of certain Lebanese affairs.
Yet the scenario faces firm opposition from key international actors, with France at the forefront. Paris insists that Lebanese authorities still have an opportunity to retain control over the country—particularly regarding the monopoly on arms, decisions of war and peace, and the implementation of financial reforms.

Another Western diplomatic source warned that Lebanon’s political deadlock is likely to persist. The government, he argued, has already done the maximum it can regarding disarming Hezbollah, yet these efforts have satisfied none of the parties involved. Hezbollah continues to claim a military role both now and in the future—a reality the Lebanese state cannot tolerate if it is genuinely committed to international resolutions and the ceasefire agreement.

This reality has effectively freed Israel from binding obligations, allowing it to continue strikes and targeted assassinations against Hezbollah without triggering a full-scale war. The Israeli military is achieving its objectives through this limited approach and is not currently prepared to escalate the conflict, despite repeated reports suggesting that military leaders have advised political authorities to launch a broader campaign against Hezbollah.

The Western diplomatic source also warned about Hezbollah secretary-general Sheikh Naim Qassem’s renewed reference to suicide operations. He noted that countries closely monitoring the situation are observing growing resolve and violence in Hezbollah’s rhetoric.

In fact, what is needed is a decisive shift toward a political path focused on securing and maintaining stability. It is now evident for the Lebanese authorities that this path requires direct negotiations with Israel.