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3. Lebanon Moves Toward Gradual Disarmament of Hezbollah

Anyone who believes Hezbollah will announce the handover of its weapons to the Lebanese Army is mistaken. The party is unlikely to do so for two main reasons.

First, its arsenal remains closely tied to the strategic agenda of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Second, Hezbollah uses the issue to rally Lebanese Shia, portraying itself as a protector against existential threats should the weapons be surrendered. This strategy not only solidifies its support among Shia but also reinforces its image as the sole legitimate representative of the community as such – a crucial advantage ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Despite Hezbollah’s stance, the effort to bring all weapons under state control continues and shows no sign of stopping, according to official Lebanese sources. They describe the process as a gradual reduction of the party’s arsenal, one that will ultimately achieve its intended outcome.

According to sources, the Lebanese Army plans to intensify its efforts to bring weapons under state control in the area south of the Litani River, aiming to complete the operation as quickly as possible before moving on to areas north of the river. Since the ceasefire agreement on November 27, the army has also implemented measures to prevent the transfer of weapons and ammunition between regions, while monitoring multiple sites suspected of storing arms to stop any movement. The army has received information on several of these sites from the Ceasefire Monitoring Committee. Moreover, the use of transit permits and other facilitation documents previously used by Hezbollah members has been suspended, and access to several state security and military offices has been revoked.

In this context, official Lebanese sources confirmed that the army’s efforts to gradually dismantle Hezbollah’s arsenal and bring it under state control benefit from international support, particularly from the United States. This backing was reflected last week when Congress approved new assistance for the army totaling $190 million.

Alongside this gradual dismantling of Hezbollah’s arsenal, Israel continues to strike the group, aiming to disrupt military movements, target its operatives, and hit ammunition depots and other infrastructure. The most recent strikes on Monday targeted Hezbollah positions in northern Beqaa, including training centers, killing five members.

According to available information, the army had been asked to move toward these sites, but concerns over potential clashes delayed its operation, allowing Israel to carry out airstrikes. Western diplomatic sources said the Israeli attacks will continue with full US backing, as they serve the broader American objective of ensuring that weapons remain under the control of the Lebanese state.