- 01
- May
- 2025
There was a time when the “army, people, resistance” triptych formula served as little more than a fig leaf, masking Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon and its role as a proxy for Iran and its now shattered expansionist ambitions.
This illusion has collapsed: the militia has lost the war.
For years, Hezbollah claimed that its weapons were meant to maintain a balance of terror with Israel, a simple deception. There was never any real balance, only an absurd standoff between technological superiority and ideological obstinacy.
Yet, Hezbollah stubbornly clings to its arsenal, as if nothing had changed, entrenched in a fiction that does not convince anyone. Despite its battlefield losses and mounting international pressure to disarm, the group persists in holding onto its weapons.
Domestically, Hezbollah deflects blame, accusing the state of obstructing reconstruction—a cynical reversal, where the arsonist faults the firefighters.
In his latest speech, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General only fueled this downward spiral.
Still in denial, he spoke of imminent victory, invoking the same worn-out triptych that once served Lebanon so poorly. Meanwhile, Hezbollah's leadership appears indifferent to the consequences of its recklessness, pushing the country ever closer to the brink.
As Hezbollah doubles down on outdated narratives, its rhetoric grows increasingly detached from logic. But what, exactly, does it hope to achieve? Despite the deep concerns of the vast majority of Lebanese, who long for nothing more than a simple daily life, Hezbollah remains deaf to the threat of internal collapse.
This is precisely the danger that the president seems intent on avoiding. Joseph Aoun has opted for a softer approach—namely, bilateral discussions—in an effort to bring about Hezbollah’s disarmament. But as the Lebanese saying goes, one hand cannot clap alone. Eventually, whether willingly or not, the Iran-backed militia will have to come to terms with reality.
Meanwhile, the threat to stability is real. Continued intransigence risks pushing Lebanon beyond the point of no return, and could invite renewed Israeli military action, especially in light of recent operations in Gaza. If it comes to that, nothing, absolutely nothing, will stand in Israel’s way.
The next four Sundays will see municipal elections, a key test of Hezbollah’s popular support, especially within its own community. That is, assuming voters are free to express themselves without intimidation or “friendly encouragement” from armed partisans.
Beyond the domestic front, another deadline looms: ongoing US-Iran negotiations. Three rounds of talks have already occurred, alternating carrots and sticks. Until this geopolitical chess match is resolved, Lebanon will remain hostage, and the cost of delay will only rise due to staggering blindness.
Isaac Asimov once wrote, “Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.” And in Lebanon today, incompetence is in no short supply.
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