- 10:00
The US Congress has taken things to a whole new level. Dubbed the “Preventing Armed Groups from Engaging in Extremism Act” (PAGER Act), this legislation, spearheaded by Republican Congressman Greg Steube, is not just about sanctioning Hezbollah—it’s about forcing Lebanon into a political and military reckoning.
The bill lays out an uncompromising checklist: within 60 days of its enactment, Lebanon must take drastic steps to disarm Hezbollah, cut all government ties with the group, and completely sever any relationship with Iran. If Lebanon fails to meet these conditions, all US military aid to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will be suspended indefinitely.
And that’s just the beginning. The bill goes as far as demanding that the Lebanese government no longer recognize Hezbollah, its parliamentary bloc, or even its long-time ally, the Amal Movement, as legitimate political entities. In other words, Washington wants Beirut to erase Hezbollah from the political landscape.
If this bill passes, it won’t just put Lebanon in a bind, it could completely reshape the country’s fragile balance of power. But here’s the kicker: Lebanon might not even have the option to comply.
The bill puts US military aid—which amounts to roughly $150 million annually—on the chopping block unless Lebanon meets several extreme conditions.
What Does This Mean for Lebanon ?
At first glance, this bill looks like just another attempt to weaken Hezbollah. But let’s be clear: this isn’t just about Hezbollah. This is about Lebanon itself and its future.
The Lebanese government led by Salam cannot simply “cancel” Hezbollah and Amal from the political map. Hezbollah is not just a militia—it’s a deeply embedded political, military, and social powerhouse with seats in Parliament, affiliated ministers in the new government, and a support base.The Amal Movement, led by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, has been ruling Lebanese politics for decades.
If the Lebanese government were to implement this bill’s demands, it would trigger an immediate political crisis, potentially collapsing the fragile governing coalition. Hezbollah and Amal would resist, possibly paralyzing state institutions or pushing Lebanon closer to civil unrest. This could split the army, drag Lebanon into internal conflict, and leave the country even weaker than before.
This might be the opening move in a broader playbook:
1. Force an internal crisis.
2. Destabilize the country.
3. Justify foreign military intervention.
4. Use intervention as leverage for a regional deal.
Once foreign troops are on the ground, pressure could mount for Lebanon to normalize ties with Israel, possibly under the banner of “regional security” or a post-conflict reconstruction plan.
This fits into a broader pattern of US and Israeli strategic goals. If Hezbollah is weakened, isolated, or removed, then a Lebanon-Israel peace deal—similar to the Abraham Accords—becomes much more realistic. Would Hezbollah take the bait?
Comments