- 10:30
When Donald Trump wakes up, even his smallest remark makes global headlines—that’s just how it is. As the most powerful man on Earth, he wields arguments that are not just compelling and consequential but sometimes… explosive. For now, any statement he makes triggers shockwaves. Case in point: “Ukraine could one day become Russian.” A short comment, but it detonated like a bomb that few dared to address.
The most surprising issue, however, is Gaza. According to the American president, Egypt and Jordan should take in the Palestinians because reconstruction will take about fifteen years, and the territory has become uninhabitable. With that, a political missile is launched. Arab countries issue lukewarm protests, to which Trump responds: “If you have a better plan, propose it!” Predictably, no credible alternatives come forth.
Even Saudi Arabia was subtly called out, with a pointed remark about its vast territory being capable of absorbing displaced people… For now, Lebanon is slipping through the cracks. A word of advice: let’s strictly apply UN resolutions, stop making foolish speeches about illusory victories, and keep a low profile. It may not be glorious, but it’s realpolitik. As the weak link, Lebanon cannot afford to expose its vulnerabilities.
Back to Gaza—the US plan even envisions transforming the former Hamas stronghold into a Riviera under American control. One thing is certain: Trump is a tough negotiator and a shrewd businessman. He may be raising the stakes in hopes of securing a very favorable deal for himself in Gaza. Or perhaps these are his true intentions.
The next discussion will inevitably focus on the future of Palestinians in the West Bank. Annexation by Israel is no longer taboo and is gradually becoming inevitable. The Palestinian Authority holds little control, while Hamas continues to stir unrest.
In every scenario, the famous “two-state solution” seems increasingly out of reach. It’s unclear where a Palestinian state could even assert geographical sovereignty.
If Trump hopes to turn his vision into reality, it will take tens of billions of dollars—for Gaza’s reconstruction, for a large-scale incentivized “voluntary departure” of Palestinians (of whom 66% are already refugees in the Strip). Significant sums will also be needed to pressure Arab countries into possibly accepting some of them.
Where does Lebanon fit into all this? It also needs billions to rebuild and restart its economy after Persian adventurism. But who will provide those billions, and why? Generosity alone won’t be enough—there will be conditions. The first will be the complete disarmament of Hezbollah. Then, discussions will inevitably turn to Lebanon’s 174,000 Palestinian refugees—a highly sensitive issue that partly led to the 1975 war. Their return home remains uncertain. Will countries like the US or Canada step in, or will some be permanently resettled in Lebanon in exchange for "financial incentives"?
The future remains unpredictable. Nothing is certain. As Henry Kissinger once said: “When asked to summarize the Middle East, I always use one word: ‘complex.’ When asked to elaborate, I say: ‘very complex.’”
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