- 09:00
The hum of Israeli drones continues to fill the skies over Beirut. What might induce fear in other places has become just another layer of the city’s already chaotic soundscape. Hardly anyone takes notice anymore. Yet, there’s a subtle shift in the air when the buzzing ceases—passersby exchange fleeting, anxious glances, as if the sudden silence carries the weight of an impending calamity.
In Lebanon, the pace of current events is such that no day passes without its share of unanswered questions. The suspense never fades. For instance, we are now three days away from the expiration of the 60-day truce. What will happen on January 27? No one knows. In ancient times, people would read the entrails of animals to predict the future. Today, in our modern world, journalists have taken the role of oracles, practicing divination with the same level of uncertainty. Returning to the point, one might wonder whether the end of the 60-day truce even matters to anyone. Will the Israeli army have completed its withdrawal from the South? It remains uncertain. Will the Lebanese army have finished its deployment? Again, unclear, as the two actions are intertwined. The committee overseeing the agreement remains tight-lipped. Are there ongoing discussions? No further information. There’s a feeling that on the morning of the 27th, we will discover the situation in real time, and it will probably look strikingly similar to what it was the day before, with no clear explanation why.
Meanwhile, discussions about forming a government continue. The President of the Republic, who has demonstrated remarkable composure thus far, is channeling all efforts to expedite the process. He understands that only functional institutions can prevent the nation from enduring further hardships. However, we can expect the usual bad faith and relentless efforts from certain parties to undermine the fragile glimmer of optimism emerging in the country.
This optimism, bordering on euphoria, feels unfamiliar to the Lebanese, who have long been accustomed to a series of crises. For some, it even evokes a sense of unease—a natural reaction. Conversations revolve around infrastructure projects, profitable contracts with Gulf nations, and hundreds of millions of dollars earmarked for bolstering the army—developments that seem almost too good to be true. It wouldn’t take much to shake the fragile resolve of Lebanese sovereigntists. The challenge lies in ensuring that this promising momentum becomes irreversible before the sails lose their wind. Meanwhile, the backstage drama persists with Hamas militants staging defiant acts among the ruins of Gaza, as though proclaiming, “We are still here,” to their adversaries and to Palestinians burdened by their leaders’ reckless delusions. In Lebanon, it’s been over a week since anyone spoke of a decisive victory against Israel—a silence that feels unsettling.
In the meantime, Benjamin Netanyahu's government operates like a metronome, shifting focus seamlessly from Gaza to Lebanon, Syria, and now the West Bank. Not to mention the Houthis in Yemen who appear to be grasping—belatedly—that launching missiles destined to be intercepted and enduring punishing retaliatory strikes on their infrastructure might not be the most effective form of “resistance.”
The clock is ticking, with a palpable urgency to resolve lingering conflicts before Donald Trump’s anticipated second term begins, aligning his tenure with the decisive handling—militarily or politically—of the final challenge: Iran. And what a formidable challenge it is. Over the past year, Tehran has stumbled on every front. Its regional allies have faced defeat after defeat, leaving little more than the hollow facade of a theocratic regime tenuously clinging to the nation. But that facade is cracking. This regime faces two options: collapse or compromise. A few more blunders, further destruction, and the mullahs will have succeeded in alienating and impoverishing all who once placed their faith in them.
Do you recall Winston Churchill’s definition of success? “Going from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm.” But even that has its limits.
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