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3. Armed Factions in Syria: Identity, Affiliations, and Strategic Positioning

Over thirteen years since the beginning of the war, Syria remains a stage for complex conflicts, with numerous factions vying for control over different zones of influence. Last Wednesday, following the establishment of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, Syrian opposition forces led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Cham launched an offensive from their stronghold in the Idlib governorate in the northwest of the country, reigniting tensions in the region. Here, we provide an overview of the main forces currently present in Syria, their adversaries, and their operational zones.

 

The Syrian regime and its allies

The regime of Bashar al-Assad controls around 60% of Syrian territory, primarily in the center, west, and south of the country. It is supported by Russia, which maintains strategic bases in Hmeimim (air) and Tartous (naval), and Iran, which provides backing through Shiite militias (Iraqi, Afghan, and Pakistani) and military advisors. These forces occasionally engage in skirmishes with rebel and jihadist groups in peripheral areas like Idlib or the Syrian desert, where ISIS remains active. They fight alongside the pro-government National Defense Forces (NDF), a paramilitary group.

“The Syrian Armed Forces (SAF), comprising the army, air force, and navy, are the regular forces of the Syrian government. Since the conflict began in 2011, they have suffered significant losses and defections but have maintained control over a substantial part of Syrian territory,” explains Jean-Sébastien Guillaume, an expert and consultant in economic and strategic intelligence and founder of Celtic Intelligence.

“Under President Bashar al-Assad's command, with key figures like General Ali Mahmoud Abbas, Minister of Defense since 2022, and Maher al-Assad, the president's brother, the SAF primarily controls the south and west of Syria, including Damascus, Homs, Hama, and the Mediterranean coast,” adds Guillaume. “However, recent offensives by rebel forces have led to territorial losses, notably in Aleppo and parts of Hama.”

Regarding their military equipment, Guillaume specifies that it includes “various assets, such as T-72 and T-90 tanks, MiG-29 and Su-24 fighter jets, and air defense systems provided by Russia.”

Created in 2013 to supplement the SAF, the National Defense Forces (NDF) consist of locally recruited pro-government militias. “They operate under the supervision of local commanders loyal to the regime, are active in areas under government control, and participate in law enforcement and territorial defense operations,” says Guillaume. He notes that the NDF primarily uses light weapons and tactical vehicles.

 

Hezbollah

The Shiite group Hezbollah intervened in Syria as early as 2012 to support Assad's regime. It is present along the Lebanese-Syrian border and in parts of Damascus and Homs, equipped with anti-tank missiles, rockets, and drones, mostly supplied by Iran. However, since October 8, 2023, the pro-Iranian group has been engaged in a war against Israel in support of Hamas in Gaza, significantly depleting its military capabilities. Its leadership has also suffered considerable losses due to Israeli airstrikes.

 

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)

Primarily composed of Kurdish fighters, the SDF controls around 25% of Syrian territory, mainly in the northeast, including Hasaka (its administrative center), Raqqa (former ISIS capital), and Deir Ezzor (rich in oil resources).

Known as the People's Protection Units (YPG), the SDF serves as the military wing of the Democratic Union Party (PYD). Supported by the United States, the SDF has played a key role in combating ISIS. It maintains detention camps for thousands of suspected ISIS members and their families and is often targeted by Turkish attacks and internal tensions with local Arab factions in Deir Ezzor. Its main commander is Mazloum Abdi.

According to Guillaume, the SDF's current role involves “maintaining order in areas liberated from ISIS and combating incursions by the Turkish army and affiliated rebel factions.”

In terms of weaponry, Guillaume mentions US logistical and military support, including M16 and M4 rifles, Humvee armored vehicles, light artillery, and AT-4 anti-armor systems.

 

The Syrian National Army

The SNA comprises Turkish-backed Syrian rebel forces. Since 2016, Turkey has launched several military operations in northern Syria, establishing a buffer zone under its direct control or that of local pro-Turkish factions, such as the SNA. This zone stretches from Jarablus to Afrin and includes areas east of the Euphrates.

“Formed in 2017 under Turkey’s aegis, the SNA consists of various moderate factions partially supported (from 2014 to 2018) by the CIA and the Pentagon. It currently controls areas in northern Syria, including Afrin, Jarablus, and parts of Aleppo province,” Guillaume notes. Its armament primarily consists of “Turkish supplies, including assault rifles, light armored vehicles, and mobile artillery.”

 

Hay’at Tahrir al-Cham

Idlib, in the northwest, is primarily controlled by HTS, a former branch of Al-Qaeda. It is governed by a consultative council (shura) and influenced by religious and military leaders. HTS regularly clashes with regime forces and rival rebel factions.

“HTS declared independence from Al-Qaeda in 2016 to distance itself from the organization and gain legitimacy among local populations and regional actors,” Guillaume explains. Its leader is Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, a former Al-Qaeda member.

“Today, HTS controls Idlib, the last major rebel stronghold. Its members are active in northwest Syria, particularly around Jisr al-Shughur and Khan Sheikhoun,” Guillaume states, noting recent attempts to expand into Aleppo and Hama. HTS possesses light and intermediate weapons, captured armored vehicles, and limited artillery and improvised drones.

 

The Islamic State (ISIS)

Though territorially defeated since 2019, ISIS continues sporadic attacks from the Syrian desert against regime forces and the SDF. It remains a residual but active threat in remote rural areas.

 

International Forces

The United States has been present in Syria since 2014 as part of the international coalition against ISIS. They maintain bases in areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), notably in Al-Omar (an oil field) and Al-Tanf (near the Jordanian and Iraqi borders). They also have special forces stationed in the regions of Deir Ezzor and Hasaka. Their presence primarily aims to counter ISIS and contain Iranian influence.

While Russia and Iran play key roles in providing military support to the Assad regime, Turkey's actions are focused on preventing Kurdish autonomy near its borders. Turkey has been militarily involved in Syria directly since 2016, aiming to block the establishment of Kurdish autonomy along its border. "The areas it occupies are located in northern Syria, particularly in Afrin, Jarablus, and Tall Abyad, with military bases in these regions and significant involvement of the Turkish army," explains Guillaume. Its role includes supporting the Syrian National Army (SNA) and combating the SDF/YPG.

Russia has been militarily present in Syria since 2015 and plays a crucial role in supporting the Assad regime. Its military bases are located in Hmeimim and Tartous, while its ground and air forces operate in sensitive areas such as Idlib, Aleppo, and the Badiya desert. "Operations are directed by the Russian Ministry of Defense, with field commanders coordinating military actions using Su-34 fighter jets, Ka-52 attack helicopters, and S-400 air defense systems," notes Guillaume.

Since the beginning of the conflict, Iran has provided consistent military support to the Assad regime, "including the deployment of military advisers and assistance from foreign Shia militias," says the expert. Operations in Syria are overseen by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and Iranian bases are currently located in southern and eastern Syria, notably in Abou Kamal (near the Iraqi border). Tehran is also present in Damascus and its surroundings, equipped with both light and heavy weaponry, including short-range ballistic missiles.