- 16:30
The entry into force of the ceasefire was marked by… celebratory gunfire and the distribution of Hezbollah flags in the southern suburb of Beirut. Some Lebanese have a rather astounding tendency to learn nothing from the country’s tragedies.
Some 3,700 dead, $10 billion in damages, and yet… celebratory gunfire!
The poor Jean-Yves Le Drian, France’s special envoy to Lebanon, arrived in Beirut to ‘hit the iron while it is hot’ and expedite the election of a president. He might be surprised to find that nothing has changed. On one side, the Shiite tandem; on the other, a fragmented opposition. It’s enough to discourage even the most seasoned diplomats.
Those who are preparing to celebrate victories, “divine” or otherwise, should think twice. What are we talking about? Sixty days of a ceasefire, if all goes well. During these two months, the Lebanese Army is supposed to deploy south of the Litani River, Hezbollah is expected to give up its weapons, and the government is committed to controlling the border with Syria. With the “customary benevolence” of the Assad regime, this will be far from easy.
These missions amount to climbing Everest barehanded.
Absurdly, everyone claims to have won. The Israelis will replenish their ammunition stocks and give their reservists a break, now focusing, as Benjamin Netanyahu stated, on Iran and Hamas, even if it means resuming the war later. The Israeli Prime Minister has made it clear to local officials in northern cities that it’s far too early to return home. Hezbollah, militarily defeated, will declare victory against all evidence. Its new secretary-general will return from Iran, and its MPs will emerge from Parliament, where they had taken refuge. The Biden administration has finally achieved its diplomatic success.
But who will be held accountable for plunging the country into hell? Probably no one. Who will rebuild what Iran’s strategic blunder has destroyed? Likely very few.
Everything will depend on the Lebanese state. In other words, nothing is guaranteed, and that’s deeply concerning. Because unfortunately, we know the Lebanese state all too well!
In 60 days, Donald Trump will take office. It’s uncertain whether he will indefinitely tolerate the pathetic and irresolute Lebanese leaders. He could very well raise the bar higher than the 13-point ceasefire agreement. The problem is that the “66-day war” (starting September 23) was between Hezbollah and Israel. The ceasefire agreement was concluded between the Lebanese state and Israel. A critical distinction. This means that in the event of non-compliance, it will likely be official Lebanon — and with it, the country’s civilian infrastructure — that pays the price.
Churchill said, “If you’re going through hell, keep going…” So, let’s go for it.
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