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3. Hochstein’s Visit: Outcome Still Pending

United States presidential envoy Amos Hochstein and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri have not yet concluded negotiations on a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Berri assigned his advisor, Ali Hamdan, to coordinate with Hochstein's team on resolving the remaining points of contention. Hochstein is pushing to finalize a framework that aligns with the American conditions for a ceasefire, aiming to present it to the Israelis as soon as possible.

Sources closely following the visit noted that Berri’s statement describing the ceasefire talks as “good” reflects his personal stance rather than a comprehensive assessment of the overall discussions. Agreements reached at Ain al-Tineh between the Shiite duo Amal-Hezbollah and Hochstein may struggle to gain traction in Tel Aviv, particularly as the US lacks the leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to his statements, Netanyahu has raised the bar for ceasefire demands, including conditions that Hezbollah is unlikely to accept – mainly those aimed at preventing it from rebuilding its military capabilities or maintaining its arsenal, particularly its precision missiles.

Furthermore, the same sources disclosed that Hochstein did not provide any guarantees to the leader of the Amal Movement that the formula agreed upon in Beirut would be accepted by Tel Aviv. This is particularly important given that the Americans had assured the Israelis that the solution reached in southern Lebanon would remove any future threats to Israel, especially to residents of the north.

However, Hezbollah has rejected this particular point, despite reports suggesting that it might withdraw to the northern Litani River – though the details of such a move remain unclear. Additionally, Hezbollah officials, ministers and MPs have openly stated that such a pullback would not prevent the group from launching rockets at Israel whenever they deem it necessary or appropriate.

Finally, the sources indicated that Hochstein received a message from the Israelis, making it clear that there can be no middle ground on the issue of effectively monitoring the implementation of Resolution 1701 and preventing Hezbollah from rebuilding its military capabilities. Consequently, Hochstein is working with Berri to find a formula that avoids embarrassing Lebanon and provoking Israel, hoping to break through the impasse in the coming days, to achieve a ceasefire agreement and implement Resolution 1701.