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3. An Imminent Ceasefire Between Israel and Hezbollah Is Unlikely

With much apprehension mixed with shy hope, the Lebanese are closely following the visit of US envoy Amos Hochstein who will be relaying Lebanon’s response to Israel regarding a ceasefire proposal.

Lebanon announced that Hezbollah has agreed to the US proposal, though it made certain comments, stressing that UN Resolution 1701 should be the base of any ceasefire agreement.

However, details of the proposal remained unclear after it was delivered last week by the US ambassador to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who has been commissioned by Hezbollah to negotiate.

But despite somehow optimist vibes circulated by Lebanese officials, there are major sticking points that remain to be resolved, making an imminent ceasefire deal unlikely.

Among the hitches being debated is the idea of a Western-led committee that the US wants to create to oversee the strict implementation of UN Resolution 1701.

According to an informed source, the existing tripartite committee established within the framework of resolution 1701 and which groups UNIFIL and representatives from the Lebanese and Israeli armies, could be enlarged to guarantee a reinforced observation of the resolution’s implementation.

“This is one of the points under discussion,” the source told This is Beirut. “Exploring if it is possible, within the framework of 1701 and under the tripartite committee’s prerogatives, to invite additional observers, one French and one American, in order to give additional guarantees to the two parties, and this without going back to the Security Council.”

According to a source close to Hezbollah, the inclusion of US and French representatives in the observation committee is plausible. Veto is placed only on the Germans and the British.

“Hezbollah accepted resolution 1701 and is ready to implement it literally and right away, including the withdrawal of its fighters and weapons north of the Litani River” which is about 30 km from the border with Israel.

“There is a strong possibility of reaching a ceasefire and stopping the aggression, but that is linked to the Israeli position and the field developments. If Israel feels that it is no longer able to advance and to accomplish military gains, it would accept an end to the war,” the source said, speaking to This is Beirut on condition of anonymity.

“Hezbollah is still able to resist and it is capable of challenging Israel and launching missiles deep into Israeli territory and at Tel Aviv, and won't bow to Israeli conditions,” the source added, implying that ceasefire negotiations are yet to yield a positive result. 

Another major glitch in the negotiations is Israel’s demand for the right to act inside Lebanon if there is any violation of the agreement, in addition to having international surveillance of the land border with Syria, the airport and port in order to prevent any possible transfer of weapons to Hezbollah.

Retired army General Naji Malaeb stresses that “this is a non-starter,” adding, “It is unacceptable that any ceasefire deal encroaches on national sovereignty.”

He argued that “it is all part of the negotiations process where parties try to raise the ceiling of their demands in order to score points and get as much as possible in return.”

A potential agreement would include the deployment of thousands of additional troops of the Lebanese army to southern Lebanon. The deal would also stipulate a timeline for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the south.

In the meantime, Israel has stepped up its unrelenting attacks against Lebanon, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declaring that negotiations would be conducted under fire. He even pledged to continue to “systematically operate” against Hezbollah, even if a ceasefire deal is reached.

Emboldened by tactical gains, including occupation of border territory in south Lebanon and its capacity to strike at targets across Lebanon at any time, Netanyahu is unlikely to accept any deal that would not ensure that Hezbollah is prevented from restructuring itself and rebuilding its military capacities, jeopardizing the safety of settlers in north Israel in coming years.