- 26
- Oct.
- 2024
So there you have it! the famous response to the response has just taken place. Military sites against military sites. No red line has been crossed.
The Israeli air force struck some twenty military bases in several areas of Iran. Teheran in particular. Around a hundred fighter planes, all returned to their bases. As “promised”, nuclear installations and hydrocarbon production zones were not hit. It is now clear that nobody wants the conflict to spread to the whole region. The Americans seem to have succeeded in limiting the response.
The Biden Administration even considers that this latest episode should mark the end of the confrontation between Israel and Iran. So, on this front, everything is under control. The Iranians are doing well. Surprisingly well. What happened behind the scenes? What price did the Iranians agree to pay for this highly restrained action? The next few days will tell. But what we have seen gives an idea. Once the expected phase of threats and victorious announcements is over, all eyes, as usual, will turn to Lebanon. Will we see a resurgence of violence, or on the contrary, the beginning of a reduction in fighting?
You don't have to be Nostradamus to realize that Iran has clearly abandoned its allies to their fate. Hezbollah must now choose. Continue a war that has never had anything to do with Lebanon, or start thinking about how to save its political presence in the country. The famous “Lebanization of Hezbollah”. This would be the smartest way to survive by freeing itself from Teheran's financial and military stranglehold. For this to happen, someone will have to have the courage to explain to those who have lost everything that the war of 2024 was merely a pre-negotiation pressure card for the mullahs. Sometimes, intelligence consists in telling the truth. There is no “axis of resistance”, no “solidarity of fronts”... The Lebanese who believed in it (fewer and fewer) have been duped. All along the line. Left in the cold. It's time to wake up. No one can pull the country out of the spiral of violence and destruction. So it's essential to find solutions internally, and get away from the rhetoric.
Above all, the country must stand united behind its army and its leader. This is the only way to avoid internal chaos. A president must then be elected, without waiting for the international “arrangements” and “umbrellas” that are slow to come. The army is ready to deploy at the border. Let the politicians stop obstructing it. UN resolutions must be applied. All in the interests of Lebanon and its people, who are the only ones to suffer. It's time, high time, for Lebanon to stop being the playground for other people's ambitions. The situation is urgent.
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