Israel's technological advancements during this war have surprised many. Following the incident where pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to Hezbollah members simultaneously exploded in various regions of Lebanon due to a remote attack, the assassination of the pro-Iranian faction's secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, on September 27, has fueled speculation.
A widely circulated video on social media suggests the possibility that supersonic jets flying at low altitudes over the capital and breaking the sound barrier are being used to geolocate their targets. How true and plausible is this? What technological threshold have the Israelis reached in terms of military capabilities?
Let us look back at the facts. On September 19, the day after the attack using pagers and walkie-talkies, the Secretary General of Hezbollah decided to speak. It was a highly anticipated speech, which would turn out to be his last. He acknowledged the Israelis' technological superiority but promised harsh retaliation against the State of Israel. A promise that would go unfulfilled, as eight days later, several buildings collapsed within seconds following an Israeli Air Force attack. Dozens of 900 kg bunker-buster bombs were dropped on Hezbollah's headquarters, where Hassan Nasrallah and other senior members of the group were meeting. While the Israelis reported 20 people present at the time of the assassination, the Iranians denied this assertion without specifying the exact number.
Since then, speculation has run wild. According to Israeli defense officials cited by the New York Times, "Israeli leaders had known for months where Hassan Nasrallah was, and the decision to strike was made that same week because they believed they had a short window of opportunity before the Hezbollah leader would disappear again."
This theory is confirmed to This Is Beirut (TIB) by a military expert specializing in intelligence, counterterrorism, and counter-espionage. According to him, "Hezbollah is so infiltrated that it shouldn’t surprise us." He added: "The agents working for the State of Israel are so numerous that they have managed, over the years, to lay the groundwork." He continued: "The results of their 'activities' are then fed into highly advanced software for detailed analysis of all the data collected."
While human intelligence is a primary and indispensable vector for gathering information, technology has enabled the Israelis to carry out extremely targeted large-scale attacks.
As for the hypothesis of supersonic aircraft, Garri Khireddine, a cybersecurity expert, considers this theory unlikely, seeing it as part of the psychological warfare that the Israelis are waging against Hezbollah. Why? According to him, "All so-called passive radars operate on a single principle: the analysis of electromagnetic waves." In other words, the radar emits an electromagnetic wave towards a target, and it is the echo reflected by the target that allows detection after wave analysis. "Thus, we can gather information on the object's position, distance, speed, and sometimes even its shape," explains the expert.
However, in the case of supersonic aircraft, "the use of sound waves for target detection becomes less practical," says Khireddine, since these planes "produce shock waves that can distort or mask the echoes collected for analysis, making it difficult to use traditional methods." Additionally, according to him, the high speed of these aircraft significantly reduces the time available for a radar system to send electromagnetic waves, receive the echo, detect, and analyze the target."
Since the hypothesis of supersonic aircraft is dismissed for the aforementioned reasons, Khireddine believes it is likely that the Israelis "infiltrated a device belonging either to Nasrallah himself or to one of his guards, for eavesdropping and geolocation." "They had already done this with the pagers and walkie-talkies incident, although I believe exploding those devices was a poor strategic decision since they could have continued to use this method for better tracking," notes the cybersecurity expert. "Unless their goal was to instill fear rather than achieve a purely military objective," he adds.
In an interview with This Is Beirut, Guy Cramer, the author of the video about supersonic aircraft, explains: "It’s just speculation, but it’s based on years of research into aircraft detection."
He adds: "In the 1980s, my grandfather, Donald L. Hings, who invented the walkie-talkie just before World War II, developed a highly sensitive instrument capable of tracking various aircraft by their interactions with the atmosphere, creating a signal that travels away from the aircraft at one-third the speed of light." After working with him between 1985 and 1991 as a research assistant, Hings and Cramer discovered that "on April 29, 1990, the instrument detected and tracked a hypersonic aircraft." It was the space shuttle Discovery, flying at 25,898 km/h and re-entering the atmosphere near Midway Island over the Pacific Ocean at an altitude of about 122 km. "31 minutes before landing, the instrument detected the shuttle’s re-entry and tracked it all the way to its landing at Edwards Air Force Base in California," he continues. He claims that "the distance between the instrument in Vancouver and the shuttle was more than 5,000 km, and the landing occurred over 1,600 km away. No apparent signal delay was noted, and everything seemed instantaneous." "This is the basis for my hypothesis," he concludes.
While the use of advanced technology is a complex subject in the context of tensions between Hezbollah and Israel, it manifests in various forms. To optimize its military strategy and minimize human losses on its side, the State of Israel employs various forms of intelligence. According to the military expert specializing in intelligence, the Israelis undoubtedly continue to focus on "basic elements," such as signals intelligence (SIGINT), imagery intelligence (IMINT), and open-source intelligence (OSINT), but most importantly, human intelligence.
Militarized Technology
A pioneer in technological defense, Israel has developed sophisticated defense systems, from the Iron Dome to advanced drones. In this dynamic, artificial intelligence has gradually become a key tool in Israeli military operations, especially against Hezbollah. One of the most important applications is intelligence gathering and analysis. "Due to the asymmetric nature of the conflict – with Hezbollah fighters often mixed with civilians – it is essential for Israel to obtain precise and real-time information," the military expert says. "Artificial intelligence systems allow for the rapid analysis of vast amounts of data from various sources: satellite images, intercepted communications, drone videos, etc." he affirms.
According to him, AI algorithms can detect patterns and predict behaviors, allowing for better identification of enemy targets and reducing collateral damage.
Autonomous Drones and Precision Weapons
Israel also uses artificial intelligence to enhance the efficiency of its weapons systems. "For example, autonomous and semi-autonomous drones incorporate AI systems to navigate, identify targets, and even make real-time decisions on the opportunity for a strike. These systems allow Israel to conduct surveillance or strikes without directly exposing its soldiers to danger," notes the cybersecurity expert, speaking anonymously.
Often equipped with artificial intelligence, Israeli drones are capable of flying long distances while gathering visual and acoustic intelligence. "Some can even autonomously strike specific targets after identifying a potential objective through data analysis. These technologies improve the precision of attacks, reducing the risk of hitting civilian targets, which is crucial in densely populated areas like southern Lebanon," explains the expert.
The Lavender Program
Last April, the Israeli left-wing news and opinion magazine +972 and the Hebrew-language news site Local Call revealed the existence of an artificial intelligence program called "Lavender" developed and used by Israeli forces in their security, surveillance, and intelligence operations. However, public information about this particular program remains limited and often classified. "There is no official source on this matter, and most of the information concerning this program comes from open sources. There’s also no confirmation that this system is used in Lebanon," emphasizes Khireddine.
He explains, however, that the Lavender program is "an AI system developed by the Israeli military, designed to analyze and process large amounts of data to identify individuals potentially affiliated with militant groups such as Hamas." According to him, it relies on "a combination of communication models, associations, and behaviors to generate a score, determining the likelihood that a person is involved in militant activities."
It is important to note that Israel has several government and military entities, such as the army’s elite Unit 8200, specializing in digital intelligence and cybersecurity operations. It is in this context that programs like Lavender emerge, often aimed at enhancing surveillance, data analysis, and communication interception capabilities.
"For the Lavender system or any AI-based analytical solution to be as effective as possible, it must be fed with as much data as possible," Khireddine specifies. "The more complete the data, the better the system can establish correlations and draw conclusions," he adds. He notes that "in conflict zones like Gaza and Lebanon, where there are complex networks of relationships between resistance groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, the program could potentially benefit from intelligence cross-referencing about these groups." Thus, according to him, the links between the two resistance organizations could enhance the AI's ability to detect patterns and target individuals based on common tactics or affiliations.
What is the Lavender Program? While much remains unknown about how this system truly functions, it is "possible to imagine that it incorporates some standard features of Israeli surveillance technologies," notes Khireddine.
Digital surveillance: Lavender could be used to monitor communication networks, collect information from digital platforms, and intercept sensitive data.
Big data analysis: The program could leverage AI and machine learning technologies to quickly analyze large amounts of data, detect patterns, or anticipate potential threats.
Cyber defense operations: Lavender might include tools for protecting Israeli digital infrastructure from cyberattacks or espionage attempts.
Real-time intelligence collection: It could facilitate real-time information gathering, providing Israeli security forces with updated knowledge of situations on the ground.
Israel's use of various forms of intelligence in its war against Hezbollah reflects a growing militarization of advanced technologies. While these technologies enable better field efficiency and reduce human losses, they also present challenges in terms of responsibility and morality.
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