French presidential envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, is expected to return to Lebanon in the forthcoming days, as part of an apparent three-pronged dynamic: local, regional and Western. The primary aim of this dynamic is to untie the Gordian knot represented by the consultations supposed to lead to a form of consensus for the election of a new head of state.
According to sources, Le Drian would suggest that he himself assume the role of mediator within the framework of time-limited consultations that should lead to an agreement, either around a presidential candidate, or on a concise list of candidates. Then, a plenary parliamentary session with a guaranteed quorum and successive voting rounds would be held until a president is elected.
During his visit to Beirut, if confirmed, Le Drian should examine whether the various Lebanese parties are willing to let him take on the mediator’s role. It is known that they are not hostile to the principle of parliamentary consultations, but the opposition refuses to have Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri leading the consultations, on the ground that he is a party in the discord.
Will Le Drian be able to overcome this obstacle? According to a French diplomatic source, the issue of the presidential election is progressing as it should, both internally and externally, and the recent efforts in that regard, led by the head of the Democratic Gathering (the PSP's parliamentary bloc), Teymour Joumblatt, have been coordinated with the French envoy and were initiated upon his request.
“For the first time, we have the feeling that we are approaching a solution”, the source said, noting that the disagreement is currently limited to the Lebanese Forces and the Speaker of Parliament on the point of who will lead the consultations. According to the source, this point is not impossible to resolve, if the intentions are sincere.
With France, Qatari mediation is also in full swing, as demonstrated by the parade of Lebanese political figures in Doha over the past few weeks.
Doha’s visitors underlined Qatar’s keenness to have a leading role in facilitating the process of the presidential election in Lebanon. According to informed sources, the Qatari officials believe that their efforts will not be obstructed by their peers in the Quintet Committee, including the US, Saudi Arabia Egypt and France.
In fact, neither the United States nor Saudi Arabia want to be in the forefront, while France's efforts are aligned with Qatar’s since they share the same objectives, and won’t be impeded, regardless of who succeeds in achieving them. As for Egypt, while it may not fully endorse Qatar’s involvement, it might consider that having previously played a crucial role within the Quintet Committee, the time has come for a shift in leadership dynamics.
In Doha, the Lebanese visitors heard from Qatari officials praise for the efforts of the five-nation Quintet Committee. They were also assured of the consensus and reinforced solidarity among its members, and that its work will continue in order to reach the aspired result sooner or later.In this context, Qatari officials refrained from suggesting specific candidates to their Lebanese counterparts, choosing instead to inquire about their preferred options, and the answers were wide-ranging. Moreover, it was revealed that the Lebanese attendees were asked to present written documentation regarding their vision on Qatar's potential role, and the mechanisms that should be followed towards a resolution of the controversial presidential dossier.
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