The representatives of the five countries overseeing developments in Lebanon, known as the Quintet (Saudi Arabia, France, the United States, Qatar and Egypt), are gearing up for a meeting in Riyadh, according to some information. It is anticipated that the meeting, potentially involving foreign ministers, will include the Quintet's ambassadors in Lebanon. This meeting is expected to stress on the importance of separating the presidential issue from developments in southern Lebanon.
Recent information indicates that members of the Quintet committee have reached a unanimous decision: Sleiman Frangieh, the leader of the Marada Party, lacks the necessary endorsement for the presidency as a candidate backed by the Shiite duo, Amal-Hezbollah. Instead, support seems to be shifting towards Army Commander-in-Chief General Joseph Aoun, with the exception of Qatar, which favors the interim head of General Security, General Elias Baissari. Informed sources familiar with the Quintet's discussions suggest that the extension of General Aoun's term as the Army Commander—which was facilitated through international and regional consensus—is meant to pave his way to the presidency, if all the conducive conditions are met. One main condition is that Hezbollah agree with this course of action and renounce its support for Frangieh’s candidacy.
The same sources disclosed growing inclination within the Quintet to intensify dialogue with Iran, an initiative spearheaded by Saudi Arabia and Qatar to convince Tehran to give up on Frangieh and entertain a third alternative, possibly the Army Commander. However, this outcome hinges on Iran’s approval and, ultimately, Qatar's alignment to cement the Quintet's consensus.
In this context, sources indicate that some parties, not aligned with what is known as the "Resistance Axis," have been making favorable statements about Frangieh. This is raising concern among some members of the Quintet given that Frangieh lacks broad Christian support, while General Joseph Aoun enjoys the support of a large segment of the Christian community, including the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb and Christian MPs from different regions. As for Elias Baissari, he is allegedly backed by the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, who has neither confirmed nor denied such support. Furthermore, Baissari can potentially gain support from other Christan MPs if Joseph Aoun fails to make it into the presidential race.
Despite all that has been said, these sources do not foresee an imminent presidential election. Instead, they view the current developments as preliminary steps for a post-"green light" phase, to be given by Hezbollah once regional conditions are ripe and once the Shiite party is convinced that imposing a presidential candidate will not be in the best interest of Lebanon or the Lebanese.
Read more
Comments