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Well, there you have it: the dreaded miscalculation has finally happened. Then again, with so many missiles being fired, it was only a matter of time before one caused civilian casualties instead of just hitting the three useless antenna towers on the other side of the border. Misfire, missile misdirected by Israel’s own defense… The roar of cannons will drown out all the controversy.
An Israeli response is inevitable, but the manner of it remains uncertain. One thing is clear: Lebanon will bear the brunt of it. Israeli ministers have suggested the country could be burned, annihilated or, in the latest twist, have its capital “torn apart.” If the ultimate goal is to return Lebanon to the Stone Age, the country is already there, with no water, electricity or infrastructure. Fortunately, Israeli leaders seem blissfully unaware of the abyss that the poor country is already in.
The other tune is, “We must destroy Lebanon and Hezbollah.” As if Lebanon had any say in the matter. The large majority of Lebanese are against a war that will bring only suffering and achieve nothing. The country’s residents are caught in a double bind: held hostage by Hezbollah, which follows orders from Persian octogenarians in Tehran, and by Israel, which lumps everyone together for the sake of convenience.
So, while the main losers are the Lebanese, who stands to win?
Benjamin Netanyahu can argue that he’s protecting his population and soar in the polls. But Israel has failed to eradicate Hamas or rescue its hostages, so taking on the Iranian aircraft carrier is yet another impossible mission. Without any doubt, Hezbollah will not be destroyed, but Lebanon will.
But Tehran has far greater ambitions beyond this ungovernable chaos. After the war, there will inevitably be talks to stop the fighting. The Israelis have no choice but to negotiate with Hezbollah. Power meets power. And, for instance, the Christians, isolated in their Bantustan, are so divided that they hold no real influence. They are committing a suicidal act that history will never forgive. If a full-scale war erupts, the Christians of Lebanon – the last remaining in the Middle East – will choose to emigrate.
But surely, a few elderly people will stay on, turning the country into an open-air nursing home for the diaspora’s grandchildren to visit – until it shuts down due to a lack of residents. For their part, the Sunnis have had no significant leader since Saad Hariri was forced to leave.
Hence, the ones left standing will be the Israelis and Hezbollah, who will have to face off and negotiate. Amid the ruins of Lebanon, the pro-Iranian militia will likely proclaim yet another “divine victory.” All it would take is for the Israelis to agree to withdraw from a couple of small plots of land and allow a few American or United Nations soldiers to be deployed on their territory. A “divine victory” that would let the president of the Islamic Republic of Lebanon move comfortably into Baabda. Case closed.
Since October 8, This is Beirut has been trying to uphold that war is the worst possible solution, a sentiment shared by the overwhelming majority of the population. Our argument is the following: only when the 1.6 billion people of the Arab-Muslim world undertake their “journey to al-Quds” will we see if the Lebanese decide to join in. We have been pointing out that the destruction of the south in no way helps Gaza, and that Lebanon has suffered the most for the “Palestinian cause” during 15 years of war.
But refusing to be the only ones to be destroyed now results in being branded with infamy and betrayal! Dying for others has clearly become the fate and duty of the Lebanese. When the first raids begin, we will once again hear, “It wasn’t us” and “Had we only known,” but regardless, it will be hailed as a victory. Whether it is divine or not, we will find out soon enough.
