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The parliamentary election session of June 14 was decisive, in one sense or another. For some, the Azour-Frangieh duel should be reconsidered. For others, it should be consolidated.
Negotiations are underway to define the next stage of the opposition’s strategy. The Lebanese Forces (LF), the Kataeb party, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), as well as Forces of Change MPs and some independents have confirmed that meetings and discussions will intensify in the coming days to determine the position to be taken.
“What is certain is that a new phase is beginning,” argues a source interviewed by Ici Beyrouth. “Even if it’s still early to announce it, I think everyone has understood that after the June 14 session, we’ve moved on to a stage where we can no longer talk about Jihad Azour,” says to the source. “Regarding the Marada leader Sleiman Frangieh, it’s obvious that it’s almost impossible for him to be elected. Everything will depend on French mediation, which will open new doors.”
The results of Wednesday’s parliamentary session were that the former Minister of Finance in the running for the presidency and supported by the opposition (LF, Kataeb, FPM, Progressive Socialist Party, as well as several Forces of Change MPs and independents) obtained 59 votes in the first round. His opponent, Sleiman Frangieh, supported by the Shiite tandem Amal-Hezbollah, received 51 votes.
“It’s not the 8-vote gap that’s significant. What we need to remember from Wednesday’s session is that the majority of Parliament (the 77 deputies who did not vote for Mr. Frangieh) was opposed to the camp and the project of the axis of the Moumanaa (Hezbollah and its allies),” asserts deputy and vice-president of the Kataeb party, Salim el-Sayegh, contacted by Ici Beyrouth. According to him, “this lack of confidence in the Marada leader as a Moumanaa candidate, and the trust placed in Mr. Azour’s candidacy by more than a third of the deputies, encourages us to stay the course, even if the process of electing a candidate has not been completed.”
For LF deputy Georges Okais, Jihad Azour is one step ahead of his opponent. “If the electoral process has been respected, we would have been able to elect a president,” he points out, denouncing the withdrawal of Hezbollah and Amal deputies from the session after the first round, which resulted in a lack of quorum. This approach was also jointly criticized by opposition MPs in a statement published on Thursday, stressing the importance of consolidating their support for Mr. Azour’s candidacy.
Mr. Okais also indicated that the LF, along with its allies in the opposition camp and the FPM, would be stepping up contacts to reach an agreement on the next steps to be taken. He stressed the importance of holding consecutive parliamentary sessions until a Head of State is elected in accordance with the principles of democracy.
Contacted by Ici Beyrouth, the FPM said it was open to dialogue. “This is the strategy we have adopted to achieve convergence with the opposition deputies,” explained a source in the Aounist party. “The next step consists of analyzing the voting results from the June 14 electoral session. What we have been able to deduce so far is that no one can impose their candidate, hence the need to agree on the program of the future Head of State, far from any confessionalism,” they continued. Asked whether the FPM was considering the possibility of putting forward the name of a third candidate, the source replied, “It all depends on the other parties. We can’t do it alone. However, we must take advantage of reconciliations and the positive political atmosphere in the region without waiting for the outside world to decide our fate.”
For the time being, Jihad Azour will continue to be supported by the opposition, pending the outcome of the two key events currently awaited. One is the meeting scheduled for Friday between Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman (MBS) and French President Emmanuel Macron. The crisis in Lebanon is on the agenda for their meeting. Also on the agenda is Emmanuel Macron’s personal envoy for Lebanon Jean-Yves Le Drian’s arrival in Beirut following his meeting with French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna. Le Drian will give details of his mission and possible solutions to the political impasse.
Jihad Azour will remain at the forefront of the race as long as the FPM maintains its “adhesion” to the opposition, an adhesion that relates solely to the presidential election, at least for the time being. The exchanges between the Aounist camp and the other components of the opposition should be closely followed, especially as the agreement between them for the presidential election is based solely on Azour’s name.
Should this not be the case, another scenario could be imagined, according to some observers: the two candidates in the running for the presidency will be discarded, only to be replaced by a third who would suit all the political ‘programs.’ “Beyond the names proposed, it remains to be seen which political ‘project’ will be adopted by the future president: the Iranian project or the project according to which Lebanon would turn toward the West and the Arab world,” says a local analyst.
From the list put forward by the Maronite Patriarchate, it seems that Parliamentary Vice President Elias Bou Saab is negotiating with House Speaker Nabih Berri in favor of MP Ibrahim Kanaan. For his part, Berri is reportedly leaning toward other names, including Naji Boustani.
