Senior US officials informed Israel that Biden would support the targeting of high-value Hamas targets in Rafah – as long as it avoids a large-scale invasion.

According to a Politico report published on Thursday, March 14, top US officials told Israel in private that they could support a plan more akin to precise counterterrorism operations, rather than total war. US officials hope that this would minimize civilian casualties and avoid souring public opinion, whilst still dismantling Hamas.

More than 1.5 million people, mostly displaced from other areas of Gaza, are sheltering in Rafah. The city’s population has increased since the beginning of the conflict, leading to dire overcrowded conditions. Sandwiched against an increasingly militarized Egyptian border, Palestinians would have no avenue to escape an Israeli advance, leading the UN to warn that an invasion of Rafah could “lead to slaughter.”

Biden, with his eyes on the November election, has been facing growing discontent from congressional Democrats, and the party rank-and-file, over the US’ handling of the conflict in Gaza, reports Al-Jazeera. Biden’s recent Michigan primary victory was marked by over 100,000 “uncommitted” votes, 13.3% of the votes cast, fuelling fears that public backlash, particularly from young liberals and Muslim and Arab-American voters, may undermine Biden’s electoral prospects.

The President recently hardened his stance, in an interview with MSNBC on Saturday, calling an Israeli invasion of Rafah without a credible civilian protection plan “a red line.” The Israeli military has yet to produce such a plan.

Growing Tensions

There have been growing tensions between Washington and Tel Aviv in recent weeks. Politico reported in early February that Biden referred to Netanyahu as a “bad f-ing guy.” As the humanitarian crisis in Gaza deepened, Biden warned Israel  in his State of the Union speech against using humanitarian assistance as “a bargaining chip.”

Politico also reported that Biden is considering conditioning future military aid to Israel if an invasion of Rafah were to go ahead, although national security adviser Jake Sullivan dismissed this claim.

There is uncertainty about the imminence of an Israeli invasion of Rafah. Netanyahu remained firm in his plans and vowed to defy Biden’s red line. In private, Israeli officials told Politico that an invasion of Rafah would have to be launched at some point. However, senior White House officials told Politico that they doubt that Israel will conduct a major military operation soon because they aren’t actively repositioning their forces.

This comes as ceasefire negotiations continue, which would see the release of hostages and a pause in fighting, alongside the facilitation of more humanitarian assistance into Gaza. There have been widespread reports of famine in Northern Gaza. A number of countries are actively air-dropping aid into the enclave, although this has been dismissed as ineffective by the UN.  Last week, Biden ordered the US military to build a temporary port for Gaza, but it would require at least two months to be fully operational.