Listen to the article
The American and British airstrikes launched in early January against the Houthi rebels in Yemen came a month after Washington announced the creation of a coalition to protect maritime commerce. However, Riyadh cannot currently encourage an offensive against the Houthis as it is involved in peace negotiations with them while trying to extricate itself from the Yemeni quagmire.
The “Prosperity Guardian” operation (OPG), unveiled in December 2023, is a multinational coalition created by the United States to protect the passage of ships in the Red Sea. The Pentagon announced the participation of more than twenty countries. However, the lack of clarity about the operation and its modus operandi led several shipping companies to divert their vessels from the Bab el-Mandab strait to the Cape of Good Hope.
Read more
According to the former French military mission chief to the UN, General Dominique Trinquand, contacted by This is Beirut, it is an operation where the Americans are practically alone. The Europeans did not join, explaining that their methods differ. “The Americans carry out preemptive strikes against the Houthis, while the Europeans intervene to defend the ships,” he explained to This is Beirut.
Moreover, no Arab country or Gulf state, except Bahrain (which hosts the 5th US fleet), has joined OPG. The most obvious reason is the Arab stance against US foreign policy and its unconditional support for Israel.
These countries also do not want to appear as if they are working to defend Israel. A rare poll published in December by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy showed that “96% of Saudis believe that Arab countries should sever all ties with Israel to protest its military action in Gaza.”
Saudi Arabia’s History with the Houthis
Saudi Arabia is in a delicate position regarding the Houthis as it nears the end of the war with Yemen to focus on its internal reform projects, massive economic investments (Saudi Vision 2030), and its rapprochement with Iran.
Saudi Arabia has led a military coalition against the Houthis since 2015. It has found itself bogged down in a war from which “it has struggled to extricate itself and which has endangered part of the Saudi establishment,” according to Jean-Sebastien Guillaume, an expert and consultant in economic and strategic intelligence and founder of Celtic Intelligence, in an interview with Ici Beyrouth. The Saudi kingdom is trying to extricate itself from this conflict, which has been at an impasse for some time. Fighting in Yemen ceased in April 2022 after a UN-brokered ceasefire came into effect.
The UN Special Envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, presented a peace roadmap on January 7. “To achieve peace, we will need an environment that remains conducive to maintaining constructive dialogue on the future of Yemen,” he said.
“The ceasefire is in place, so the Saudis have no interest in fighting the Houthis or saying anything about the Houthis or the coalition because they would find themselves involved in this war from which they have struggled to extricate themselves,” said Jean-Sebastien Guillaume to This is Beirut.
The Houthis had previously attacked Saudi oil installations between 2019 and 2022, affecting the production of the world’s leading oil exporter. However, they ceased these attacks after the UN-brokered ceasefire but announced that they would resume if Saudi Arabia joined the OPG. “By not participating in the American coalition, the Saudis have formalized their truce with the Houthis,” according to General Trinquand.
The 2019 Houthi attacks on Aramco targeted two oil installations and forced the kingdom to temporarily halve its oil production. This marked a turning point in its war against the Yemeni group and in its foreign policy. In the absence of a US response at the time, Saudi Arabia recalibrated its policy, seeking diplomatic solutions on its own instead of relying on Washington, its strategic ally.
Read more
Rapprochement with Iran
On March 10, 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran, under the sponsorship of China, decided to restore diplomatic relations severed since 2016.
This rapprochement is explained by Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman’s (MBS) vision of economic expansion.
This normalization agreement, apart from demonstrating China’s emerging diplomatic power, allows Saudi Arabia to focus on its economic vision for the country and to adapt its economy to the post-oil era. The last thing MBS needs is an escalation disrupting the highly publicized Vision 2030. Therefore, the kingdom has chosen to remain silent, hoping that this new era with Iran and consequently with the Houthis — Iran’s allies — will allow it to isolate itself from regional escalations. So far, Saudi Arabia has not been targeted by Houthi attacks.
Experts agree that the Saudis have not joined the coalition because they do not want to jeopardize these talks and spoil the new friendly relations with Iran.
According to Guillaume, “From there, Saudi Arabia proves that it holds all the cards. Let’s not forget the great Indo-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor project, which will create a route competing with the Silk Road.”
Signed in September 2023 at the G20 summit in India, this corridor agreement would stimulate trade, transport energy resources, and improve digital connectivity. It would include India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Israel, and the European Union. According to the AP agency, a figure of $20 billion was mentioned by MBS for financing, but it is not clear if this amount applies only to the Saudi commitment. Riyadh therefore has one more reason not to get involved in a conflict that would jeopardize an investment of this size.
While tensions escalate in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia has consciously chosen to stay on the sidelines of the conflict. Riyadh avoids openly aligning with Washington to abstain from being targeted by attacks and compromising its new rapprochement with Iran on the one hand and its economic expansion project on the other.
According to General Trinquand, “Saudi Arabia is working on what may be the post-Gaza war and therefore has no interest in getting involved in direct action.”
For now, this distancing strategy seems to be working in its favor; only time will tell if it will ultimately protect its territory.
*Quincy Agreement
The United States and Saudi Arabia have had a mutual defense agreement since the end of World War II known as the “Quincy Agreement.” This agreement led in 1951 to the mutual defense agreement formalizing a strategic alliance between the two countries, summarized by two main points: the United States defends Saudi Arabia and, in return, the United States can obtain cheap oil and continue to exploit Saudi oil reserves through the Aramco company. Currently, Riyadh feels less bound to Washington by the “oil for protection” agreement.
In September 2023, the two countries were in negotiations to establish a defense treaty similar to that of the United States with Japan and South Korea, in which the two countries would support each other in the event the other country was attacked in the Middle East or on Saudi territory, according to the NY Times, as part of Washington’s efforts to bring Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize their relations. Just under 3,000 US troops are stationed in Saudi Arabia. This treaty did not materialize due to the outbreak of the Gaza war.
