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Amidst the political tumult dominating this year’s elections in the United Kingdom, the British Conservative Party and the government, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, are grappling with evident challenges, as highlighted by recent polls. These surveys, published respectively by the Daily Telegraph and the Times of London, two media strongholds traditionally aligned with the right and center-right, have resonated through political circles. On January 14, the traditionally conservative Daily Telegraph unveiled data deeply concerning for the Tories, suggesting a potential electoral wipe out in the upcoming general elections expected next autumn. The presented figures are stark, projecting a mere 169 parliamentary seats for the Conservatives, a substantial decline from the current 349 seats, while the Labour Party (opposition), is poised for a significant surge, jumping from 197 to 385 seats. This steep drop is causing deep concern and prompting profound questions.
The following day, the Times of London drove the point home by disclosing a second and even more burdensome poll for the Sunak government. According to this survey, the government would only have the support of 20% of voters, an alarming figure that has been perceived as a second setback for the Conservatives. Nevertheless, some well-informed analysts are questioning the nature of these sensational revelations, highlighting the strategic collusion between two media outlets traditionally aligned with the political right.
This sudden nosedive into the polling turf, orchestrated by media outlets renowned for their conservative inclinations, might be construed as a deliberate maneuver to seize the attention of the conservative electorate amidst an impending threat. Some observers are attributing this to a media strategy aimed at enticing conservative dissidents into aligning with Prime Minister Sunak on pivotal issues, at a time when unity is deemed more crucial than ever.
According to reports from various media outlets, the British public believes that economic and migratory solutions are of paramount importance in the current context. The government, led by Rishi Sunak, is actively and determinedly addressing these major concerns. Economically, the initiative for economic revitalization led by the Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, has exceeded the expectations set by the Bank of England. Hunt’s exceptional economic expertise and financial pragmatism are proving to be effective in this regard.
Annual inflation dropped to 4% in January 2024, compared to the 11.1% when Sunak took office. Against all expectations, the debt remains under control, and economic growth is showing a positive trend, slightly exceeding the projections of the Bank of England. Forecasts from reputable independent economic institutions, such as the Oxford Institute of Economics, even anticipate an inflation rate of 2% by April and 1.5% by May, deviating from the initial estimates for the end of 2025. With these economic improvements, the government has an expanded financial margin of around £20 billion (compared to the initially planned £10 billion), envisioning significant tax reductions in the budget announcement on March 6. These measures include a decrease in income tax, a decrease in the cost of social security (already reduced by 2% since the beginning of the year), and potentially a reduction in inheritance taxes, all coupled by substantial investments, especially in the technological sector. Another budget might be expected before the fall elections, bringing a more substantial package of tax cuts.
Despite the economic challenges faced by previous conservative governments, especially during Liz Truss’s administration, – which brought the United Kingdom to the edge of financial collapse –, it would be profoundly disingenuous not to recognize the efforts of Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt in steering the British economy toward recovery and vitality. In contrast, the alternative considered by some, namely a Labor government, raises concern about clear financial imprudence, highlighted by the projected borrowing of £28 billion for funding so-called green initiatives. This perspective foreshadows an increase in national debt, likely followed by tax hikes, in a context where the country is already grappling with exceptionally high tax pressure — the most pronounced in 70 years — mainly due to the repercussions of the COVID-19 crisis and the conflict in Ukraine.
On the immigration front, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is steadfastly working to implement his plan to curb illegal immigration, albeit not without challenges, staunchly advocating for the proposed legislation known as the “Rwanda Bill.” This legislative measure outlines the deportation of any immigrant entering the UK illegally back to their country of origin, if circumstances allow, or to Rwanda. Passed in Parliament on January 18, it stirred opposition from the Labour Party. However, the law still awaits further examination in the House of Lords, where fierce resistance is anticipated, given the prevailing influence of the Labour Party within that institution.
Royal approval is expected as early as March, and the first repatriation flight could potentially occur by June. However, the struggle for the adoption of this law is far from over. Nevertheless, significant improvements in the illegal migration record can be attributed to Sunak. Illegal immigrant flows from Albania, a primary migration hub to the UK, have plummeted by 90% in the last year, as has the number of clandestine boats, marking a decrease of more than a third. In contrast, the alternative envisioned by a Labour government offers no clear strategy to control illegal immigration, seemingly sidestepping the issue to avoid alienating its far-left electorate.
In the complex landscape of foreign affairs, a significant alignment has emerged between the Conservatives and Labour, particularly since Sir Keir Starmer assumed leadership of the Labour Party. Under the controversial leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, the above-mentioned party displayed distinct tendencies towards anti-Atlanticism, coupled with pro-Russia, pro-China and pro-Iran positions. However, a shift occurred with Starmer’s tenure, as he aligned his positions with those of the Conservatives, unequivocally condemning the Russian invasion in Ukraine, Hamas attacks on Israel, and endorsing American-British strikes against the Houthis. Consequently, a drastic change in foreign policy is unlikely in the event of the Labour Party’s victory in the elections. The only uncertainty looming is the potential challenge in collaboration between Sir Keir Starmer and US President Donald Trump, should the latter be re-elected in November — a concern expressed by sources close to the Labour Party’s leader, as reported by the Daily Mail.
Essentially, the Conservative Party’s path to electoral triumph is undeniably contingent on rallying behind their undisputed leader, Rishi Sunak. His insightful leadership and proven performance in Britain’s economic revitalization position him as the backbone around which conservative victory revolves. As highlighted in previous analyses, Sunak fixed the country’s foundations and laid the groundwork for a resurgence and economic vitality. Internal disagreements and dissenting voices in Parliament only serve to validate the choice of undecided voters in favor of the Labour Party, which lacks firm convictions. With ten crucial months ahead, the challenge is to prove that the Conservatives can overcome internal differences and close the gap in the polls; otherwise, the looming alternative could be devastating for the party’s political future. Uniting behind Sunak remains their sole shield against an opposition that, once wavering, now seems more determined than ever.
