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The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have recently put forth a proposal that is bound to make its mark on the global geopolitical stage.
During the 15th BRICS summit held in Johannesburg, South Africa, from August 22 to 24, the five countries extended an invitation to six nations, namely Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, Argentina and Iran, to join their ranks. This initiative raises crucial questions and unquestionably marks a turning point in the evolution of international dynamics.
The expansion option seems to be the most rational to date. BRICS cannot claim the status of a full-fledged international organization, having no permanent infrastructure and having so far established a single joint institution, namely a development bank headquartered in Shanghai.
The diversity among its members, characterized by differing political systems and the absence of a single market or common standards, further complicates any deepening prospect.
Expansion thus emerges as the preferred opportunity for BRICS to make its mark on the global stage.
Within this expansion initiative, the idea of prioritizing Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran, proves to be strategically sound. This region has traditionally been the subject of interest for the United States, which has often positioned itself as a mediator.
Furthermore, the inclusion of Iran carries a moral significance for the mullahs’ regime, which is currently facing significant internal challenges. However, this event is primarily part of the strategic cooperation pact established between Iran and China on March 27, 2021, spanning a period of 25 years.
Moreover, China is increasing its influence in the Middle East by simultaneously integrating Iran and Saudi Arabia. It is worth noting that Beijing played a key role in normalizing relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
The expansion of BRICS also aims to include the two major poles of the global Islamic community, Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran. Finally, with the participation of Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – countries representing a total of 25% of global oil production –, this initiative holds significant geostrategic importance.
It is worth noting that Saudi Arabia, traditionally seen as a key ally of the United States, has shown a tendency towards diplomatic rebalancing since 2019.
Relations between Riyadh and Washington have deteriorated since the US reaction, perceived as lukewarm by the Saudis, to the attacks on Aramco’s facilities in 2019 by the Houthis. To say nothing of the icy relations between President Biden and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman.
A similar trend is also evident in the UAE, which has recently engaged in joint military exercises with China, indicating a desire for diplomatic independence from its American ally.
These developments could be seen as a compelling call to the US, urging it to reevaluate its Middle Eastern policy in light of the ongoing geopolitical shifts.
However, Riyadh has not yet accepted the BRICS offer, and will most likely start by assessing Washington’s reaction and consider any offer that the White House might put forward.
Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia, already a regional leader, also harbors ambitions of becoming an international power, for which closer ties with China and other emerging countries will be essential. It is worth highlighting that since their creation, the BRICS have consistently pursued two objectives. Firstly, their approach was anchored in a framework of economic cooperation, aimed at ending the predominance of the dollar. In recent years, de-dollarization was at the heart of their project, an undertaking that must be considered in the long term. Secondly, their alliance holds a geopolitical dimension: China and Russia being the most significant adversaries of NATO and the US.
As such, two undeniable realities emerge: the BRICS expansion based on multilateral economic cooperation constitutes a new international development that the West must take seriously. Furthermore, it represents a significant geopolitical and economic gain for China, the driving force behind this expansion initiative.
However, it is important to avoid overemphasizing the significance of this expansion and to separate myths from realities: even though the project represents a victory for Xi Jinping, who was its most enthusiastic supporter, it is crucial to remember that the Chinese President will face opposition from India. The world’s most populous country is now part of a military alliance, the Quad (United States, India, Japan and Australia), whose mission is nothing short of containing China’s expansion in Southeast Asia. The same applies to Brazil, which does not harbor the same animosity towards the United States as Beijing and Moscow do.
Likewise, if the Chinese objective, backed by Vladimir Putin, is to create a coalition of countries capable of countering the G7, it would be challenging for Xi Jinping to find the same level of coherence among politically divergent regimes such as those of Iran, South Africa, Brazil or China.
Furthermore, de-dollarization remains an elusive goal in the near future; the differences among the BRICS and, particularly, their economic weight, will prevent them from establishing a credible common currency. At most, a few countries within the group have started to settle their transactions in their respective national currencies instead of the US dollar.
