Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin defended his aborted mutiny Monday as a bid to save his mercenary outfit and expose the failures of Russia’s military leadership, not to challenge the Kremlin.
The rogue warlord’s first audio message since calling off his troops’ advance on Moscow was released as Russian officials attempted to present the public with a return to business as usual.
Fighting continued in Ukraine, where Kyiv’s forces claimed new victories in their battle to evict Russian troops from the east and south of the country, but in the Russian capital authorities stood down their enhanced security regime.
The Kremlin, meanwhile, was at pains to stress that there had been a return to normal, having announced at the weekend that Prigozhin would be permitted to seek exile in Belarus and that there would be a general amnesty for his troops.
Putin himself did not directly address the dramatic events, but made a video speech to a youth forum dubbed the “Engineers of the future” and praised companies for overcoming “severe external challenges”.
Putin, his office said, had spoken to Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi by phone and had received Tehran’s “full support”.
He also received a call from Qatar’s Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, who also expressed his backing.
Officials in Moscow and in the Voronezh region south of the capital lifted “anti-terrorist” emergency security measures imposed to protect the capital from rebel assault.
However, a lot of questions remain.
Consequences for Russia’s top commanders?
The modalities of the deal between the Kremlin and Prigozhin remain unclear.
In a sign that Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu will keep his post for now, on Monday television broadcast footage of him inspecting Russian troops, in his first public appearance since the mutiny.
Shoigu, the target of fierce criticism by the mercenary group’s chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, went to a command post for Russian forces in Ukraine and held a meeting there with the leader of one of the units, according to images shown by the broadcaster.
During the meeting, the minister highlighted “great efficiency in the detection and destruction” of Ukraine’s weapons systems and soldiers, the ministry of defence said in a press release.
The footage shows Shoigu listening to a report being presented on the area’s military situation, studying maps and taking a helicopter ride to inspect Russian positions.
Prigozhin has repeatedly blamed Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff, for his fighters’ deaths.
What will happen to Wagner?
Prigozhin attempted a mutiny after President Vladimir Putin said members of his increasingly-powerful mercenary outfit must sign contracts with the defense ministry.
“They wanted to disband PMC (Private Military Company) Wagner,” Prigozhin said in his last audio message when he announced he was aborting his bid to storm Moscow and topple the country’s military leadership.
The Kremlin said that members of Prigozhin’s outfit who did not take part in the rebellion would still be able to sign contracts with the defence ministry, while the mutinous members of Wagner will not face criminal charges given their battlefield successes in eastern Ukraine.
“Wagner might be disbanded in its entirety, or absorbed,” wrote Michael Kofman of the Center for Naval Analyses, a US-based think-tank.
“The Russian state had been trying to set up competing organizations, and this process is likely to accelerate now.”
Tatiana Stanovaya, head of political analysis firm R.Politik, added: “Putin doesn’t need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can manage with his own forces.”
Did Prigozhin have support?
Wagner’s march sparked a series of questions: why was his thousands-strong convoy allowed to take over a key military headquarters in southern Russia and advance on Moscow seemingly unopposed?
Analysts pointed out that a mutiny of such scale might have taken weeks to prepare.
Some analysts said that Prigozhin would never launch a suicide mission alone.
Others said the mercenary chief acted out of desperation, and his “march of justice” was the only way for him to receive security guarantees as the defence ministry was about to dismantle his outfit.
The role of Vladimir Alekseyev, the first deputy head of the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence service, raised further questions. In a video address, Alekseyev said GRU had closely worked with Wagner for years as he urged them to halt their action.
Alekseyev also appeared to mock Shoigu and Gerasimov when Prigozhin told him in Rostov-on-Don that he wanted to see them. “Take them away,” Alekseyev said with a smile and a wave of the hand.
What effect on Russia’s Ukraine assault?
The Kremlin vowed that the mutiny would not affect Moscow’s assault on Ukraine, and some military analysts appear to agree.
“After Bakhmut, the military was far less dependent on Wagner,” said Kofman.
“Folks often conflated Bakhmut for the entire Russian winter offensive, and Wagner’s role as though it was omnipresent on the front. It was quite narrow, and Wagner was not used for defence in the south.”
However, in the middle of Kyiv’s counter-offensive, the events could have a “demoralising” effect on Russian soldiers, Cedric Mas, a military historian, told Franceinfo.
What are the West’s reactions?
US President Joe Biden said Monday it is “too early” to draw definitive conclusions on the impact of the Wagner mercenary group’s aborted march against Moscow and stressed his efforts to maintain Western unity on Ukraine.
Biden stressed, however, that he and key Western allies were in close touch and that he had also told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that US support will remain strong.
Biden dismissed conspiracy theories of Western involvement in the rebellion, saying he coordinated with European leaders on Zoom and “they agreed with me that we had to make sure we gave (Russian President Vladimir) Putin no excuse… to blame this on the West and to blame this on NATO.”
The US president added that he would be calling key allies again Monday. He did not say which leaders, but on Saturday he consulted with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
On the other hand, the Western allies backing Ukraine with weaponry and cash see Putin’s grip on power weakened by both Wagner’s revolt and the operation in Ukraine.
Wagner’s aborted mutiny shows that Moscow’s war in Ukraine is splintering the leadership in Russia, the EU’s top diplomat said Monday, warning of the risk of instability in the nuclear-armed country.
“What has happened during this weekend shows that the war against Ukraine is cracking Russian power and affecting its political system,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said at a meeting of the bloc’s foreign ministers.
EU foreign ministers were scrambling to digest the fallout from the uprising at their regular meeting in Luxembourg.
Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said the events were “a domestic power struggle in Russia, and we are not getting involved”.
French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said the tensions showed the “fractures and fault lines” in the Russian system.
But she said the EU was remaining “cautious” and did not want to be seen to interfere.
Roger Barake, avec AFP
