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Lewis Hamilton is set to switch to Ferrari in 2025, in one of the biggest driver moves in F1 history.
Hamilton only signed a new two-year contract with Mercedes last summer, supposedly to cover the years 2024 and 2025, which is one of the many reasons why this is such a big surprise. But it turns out that the new contract includes a release clause for 2025, which Hamilton chose to activate even before driving the 2024 Mercedes.
In reality, we didn’t see it coming, and neither did Mercedes, if the hasty meeting held in Brackley on Thursday afternoon to brief staff is anything to go by. Team boss Toto Wolff was unable to attend the meeting.
The decision was taken out of the blue because, although there had been rumors of a move, particularly at the start of 2023, Hamilton’s renewed commitment to Mercedes and the team’s own comments seemed to rule out the possibility.
Today, it’s official: Hamilton will leave Mercedes for Ferrari in 2025, and we have a pretty good idea of the motivations, to which we’ll return shortly. First of all, it’s important to realize the magnitude of the deal. This is probably the biggest move in F1 since Hamilton’s last, when he left McLaren for Mercedes in 2013, beating out Fernando Alonso’s return to McLaren and Sebastian Vettel’s switch from Ripple to Ferrari.
An Unexpected Alliance for the 2025 Season
Hamilton becoming a teammate to Charles Leclerc, arguably F1’s fastest single-lap driver, creates a teammate-power combination that is perhaps F1’s best. Given Leclerc’s qualifying prowess and the fact that he has proven himself to be a multiple race winner, this will give Leclerc an astonishing benchmark. Nevertheless, it will also be a good test for Hamilton to see if he’s still at the top of his game.
After all, he has admitted to doubting himself over the last two years, and George Russell has been pushing him hard at Mercedes. Leclerc is super-fast and well integrated into the Ferrari system, so he should be performing at 100% right from the start in 2025. So this is an incredibly bold decision on Hamilton’s part, and one that shows a self-confidence that should be applauded.
It’s also a selfish and ruthless decision, one he’s made even before the start of what would be his final season for Mercedes. Hamilton is putting emotions aside and doing what’s best for him, which is what you’d expect of any elite sportsman. You could reverse the argument and say that he’s done the right thing for Mercedes by making his decision now, giving them time to work out a succession plan. He wants to win in F1 again, which is why he’s racing into his forties.
Hamilton hasn’t won since the end of 2021 and is desperate for that to change before he retires. What’s amazing is that he’s decided that Ferrari, not Mercedes, is where he should try to do it. There will be push and pull factors behind that, and the competitive prospects of both teams are relevant.
On the Mercedes side, the determining factor would be that Hamilton no longer believes his current team is a good enough bet to give him the chance to achieve what he wants on the track. As for Ferrari, Hamilton has met the company’s president, John Elkaan, on several occasions in recent years. It’s possible that Hamilton’s existing relationship with the Ferrari team manager also played a part in convincing him.
Winning Strategy or a Calculated Risk?
Ferrari’s main attraction would be that something in its offer convinced Hamilton that it’s a better bet than Mercedes, not necessarily for 2025 but beyond, with new car and engine rules in 2026. Hamilton is no stranger to successful changes ahead of new regulations; his move to Mercedes in 2014 went well.
Hamilton doesn’t need to bank on Ferrari being a clearly superior choice. In a way, it just has to be no worse. If he’s lost faith in Mercedes, Ferrari can still offer him a stunning career epilogue. Hamilton at Ferrari is a brilliant combination, and it’s the only choice he’s ever considered. It always seemed like something that would never make enough sense.
Today, that seems to be the case, and while ticking off a career bucket list item certainly won’t be the only motivation, it’s a great sweetness that no other alternative to Mercedes can offer. Signing for Ferrari without even having driven the Mercedes 2024 in the real world or seen how the season is starting in terms of performance is a devastating vote of no confidence in his current team.
Hamilton’s arrival at Ferrari explains why Carlos Sainz, Leclerc’s current teammate, never got the expected contract extension. Losing Sainz is a negative, but when you replace him with Hamilton, it’s not a real loss. Hamilton’s departure raises an interesting question about Ferrari’s strategy. While Hamilton is still evolving at a very high level, there’s a good chance he’ll only be a Ferrari driver for a few seasons.
Sainz in Question, Bearman Ready to Succeed at Ferrari
This could be excellent news for Oliver Bearman, who could well find himself in the Ferrari driver’s seat next year, ready to take over from Hamilton. As for Sainz, the question is where he’ll go. He should be in the conversation at Mercedes, at Aston Martin, and maybe even at Red Bull. If these possibilities don’t materialize, the most likely destination seems to be the Sauber Audi project.
The drivers’ market landscape for 2025 was already shaping up to be an amusing one and has just been taken up a notch with Hamilton’s surprise departure.
